You have to take the good with the bad when it comes to betting and right now I’m taking the bad on my NFL total picks. The last few weeks remind me a lot of my golf game. I hit a number of great shots down the middle of the fairway and just when I start to think I have the game figured out the ball flies into the water or gets lost in the forest. Well, I thought I had the total picks figured out when I went 11-4 over an earlier five-week period. Then suddenly I started slicing my picks with back-to-back 1-2 weeks. The good news is that my swing comes back and hopefully my winning picks do to, sooner rather than later.
After a few weeks with teams playing above the closing total in a majority of games, the under turned up in Week 12 with nine of the 16 contests finishing below the closing total. So of course I bet the OVER in two losses. For the season the UNDER has paid out in 53.6 percent of the games while my winning percentage dropped to 55.6 with two sucky weeks. As it was I had three of the lowest scoring Week 12 games on my ticket, including THE lowest. The Niners blanked New Orleans 13-0 and I expected more, especially from the Niners with their weapons.
The lone win of the week came from my favorite team the Broncos. They’re my favorite from a betting standpoint since I’m 6-0 when making them a total pick. I didn’t expect the Rams to score a lot instead relying on Patrick Mahomes to get me an OVER winner in that game. Mahomes threw for 320 yards and a TD in the 26-10 win but the Chiefs bogged down in the red zone going just 1 of 6 as the teams played below the total of 43. After two losing week’s it’s time to bear down on the Week 13 schedule looking for winners on the NFL total picks.
NFL Week 13
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 13
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: UNDER 44.5
The OVER might be overvalued in this matchup after Mike White led the Jets to a 31-10 win over the Bears last week. Chicago was nowhere near the team it should be with Justin Fields shelved by a shoulder injury. And they’re trying to figure things out on defense allowing White to have a field day. He’ll face a much different opponent this week, one with a stingier defense that won’t be so welcoming.
The Jets only need consistent QB play and their elite defense will take care of the rest. If you don’t believe the Jets are a playoff team, you haven’t been paying close enough attention to the league. New York ranks among the top-5 in total yards and points allowed per game yielding 17 points or less in six of their last eight games. They also cashed the UNDER in five consecutive games prior to last week.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Pick: UNDER 47
Even though the Texans are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL there are reasons to back the UNDER. First, the total seems high at 47. Houston allowed 30 first half points last week and still finished the game with fewer combined points than the total for this matchup. Houston is also lacking offensively with Kyle Allen taking over at QB for Davis Mills. Allen tossed a pair of picks against Miami and the Texans hit their season point average, which is better than only Denver.
It’s been roughly 700 days since Deshaun Watson last played a game and he’s scheduled to start against his former team. That’s a long time off between facing live fire and you don’t know what you’re going to get. We’ll likely see the Browns run the football a lot against the NFL’s worst run defense chewing up time and yards leading to this game cashing the UNDER.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Pick: OVER 43.5
When the Bears had a good defense Aaron Rodgers was able to shred their secondary. With a chance to light it up against a division rival Rodgers will try his best to get on the field despite leaving last week’s loss with an injury. Mike White had a big game against the Bears last week and Rodgers is a few notches up the food chain from him.
We don’t know the status of Justin Fields after he missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury and that will play a role. The offense showed signs of life under Fields averaging nearly 30 points in five games prior to last week but the Bears managed just 10 points behind Trevor Siemian. At least the backup got some beneficial reps as the starter which will help the offense this week.
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