I guess it was bound to happen. After hitting six three-team winners in a seven week stretch I came up short on my NFL teaser picks the last two weeks. Unlike my parlay picks, though, I again came close by hitting two winners on my three-team ticket. But as we all know close doesn’t count when betting NFL teasers. If you miss one you might as well miss them all. With the bye weeks concluded we returned to a full 16-game slate last week giving us a few more options when picking games. Hopefully that allows me to return to my winning ways in Week 13.
We saw a classic example of how teasing a line works in the Bengals-Titans game. I backed the Titans at +2 with a teased line of +8, crossing over key numbers 3, 6 and 7. Cincinnati won the game 20-16 covering the original line. Buying the points worked out for me in this instance with Tennessee staying within the 8-point spread. And of course there are times when teasing the line doesn’t work. I didn’t need to fudge with the numbers in the Niners game. Teasing the line from SF -9.5 to -3.5 gave me a cushion but wasn’t needed in the Niners 13-0 win.
Then you have the times when the whole thing just blows up. I thought the banged up Bears would at least put up a fight against the Jets. Turns out they didn’t and their defense made Mike White more of a New York folk hero. White tossed three scoring passes as the Jets closed the game scoring 24 unanswered points to win 31-10 covering the teased line of 12.5-points. After averaging nearly 30 points in their previous five games, Chicago’s point total shows just how valuable Justin Fields is. We’re off to Week 13 to tease some lines and win some coin.
NFL Week 13
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Opening Total: 40.5
Teaser Total: 46.5
Both teams have winning records thanks in large part to their defenses, which rank in the upper half in fewest points allowed. Scoring points has been another story, but they both are better than Denver, which isn’t saying much. Still, you get the jist of what I’m saying. The Giants like to run the ball with Saquon Barkley and have few explosive plays this season, likewise for the team formerly known as the Redskins.
Run the football, chew up time on the clock and don’t hit any big plays is a recipe for betting the UNDER. Teasing the total to 46.5 might as well be 66.5 the way the teams operate on offense. The teams have cashed the under in a majority of their games this season and seven of the previous 10 meetings finished with a combined point total below the teased number.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Opening Line: Dolphins +4
Teaser Line: Dolphins +10
There are a lot of folks hyping up the Niners, which typically happens when a team is on a four-game winning streak. The addition of Christian McCaffrey gives them another weapon and they’ve scored points. But they got an assist from the Saints last week and also lost to Atlanta and Chicago earlier in the year so I’m not completely sold on them.
And the Dolphins are riding their own streak that reached five games with a 30-15 win over Houston last week. The Fins have a stable of playmakers as well and scored at least 30 points in four straight games. They should score points keeping the game within reach and getting 10 points on the teased line looks like a winner.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Line: Raiders +1
Teaser Line: Raiders +7
With their proclivity for playing close games both this season and against each other teasing the line to Raiders +7 makes a lot of sense. Las Vegas’ last four games have all been decided by seven points or less with the last two going to overtime. And getting wins in those OT contests has the Raiders feeling a lot better about themselves. They pretty much need to win out for any hope of the postseason and they’re playing with a sense of urgency we didn’t see earlier.
Eight of LA’s games have been decided by six points or less with just 13 points of separation over their last four. The clubs met in the season opener with the Bolts getting a 24-19 win, the sixth time in the last seven meetings the teams played a game that was decided by one score. There’s a good chance that happens again on Sunday.
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