Are you ready for another week of ugly dog picks in the NFL? It was a slight losing week last week, as we went 1-2-1 ATS. That makes the season record 26-20-2 ATS. Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works.
We have five games to look at for this week. Let’s look at the NFL Week 12 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 12 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns are a team that should be a lot better than they are, as this team has talent on both sides of the ball, yet they have just three wins on the season. Perhaps things will get better once Deshaun Watson takes over at quarterback, but realistically this team is already playing for next year. The Bucs haven’t been anything special this season, as they are also a huge disappointment, but they play in the NFC South and that means they have a very good chance to win their division. We’ll take the Browns as an ugly dog.
Houston Texans +12.5 at Miami Dolphins
There is not an uglier dog in the NFL than the Texans, who have just one win this season. It has become obvious that the Texans are playing to get the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. It has also become obvious that Davis Mills is not the answer at quarterback. He continually throws games away on a weekly basis and now he goes in to face the Dolphins in Miami. Can you see anything other than a blowout in this game. This one is definitely ugly, but as we say so many times, that is the point of this column. We take the Texans as an ugly dog.
Chicago Bears +5 at New York Jets
Why do people still think the Bears are a good team? This team has lost four straight and they are realistically out of playoff contention. Everyone gets all excited about Justin Fields running around, but the bottom line is that Fields still makes too many mistakes as a starting NFL quarterback. The Bears are trying to turn him into Lamar Jackson, but Fields still struggles to read defenses. The Jets have quarterback issues of their own, as Zach Wilson should get benched this week. This should be a low scoring game where the points are valuable. We’ll take the Bears as an ugly dog.
Los Angeles Rams +15 at Kansas City Chiefs
If not for the Houston Texans, I think you could make a case that the Rams are the ugliest dog in the NFL right now. And this is the defending Super Bowl champion. Los Angeles is without their star receiver Cooper Kupp and last week they lost quarterback Matthew Stafford. Whether or not Stafford plays this week is unclear, but regardless, can you see this Los Angeles team going into Kansas City and being remotely competitive against the Chiefs? This one is really ugly as we take the Rams plus the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers are going through the growing pains with Kenny Pickett as their quarterback. He makes some plays, but he makes a lot of mistakes. Pittsburgh is almost assuredly going to have a losing record this season under Mike Tomlin and there is no reason to get excited about taking the Steelers. The Colts are also no bargain, as they have problems on both sides of the ball. The Steelers are still the uglier team and they are the underdog, so we take the Steelers as an ugly dog.
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