It was fun while it lasted. So much fun in fact I’m looking forward to starting another winning streak on my Week 12 NFL total picks. The house has a way of getting even and it kind of did last week. I say kind of because I did hit on one of my three picks so it wasn’t a complete failure. Eight of the 14 games on the Week 11 slate went above the closing total, the second time in four weeks more games cashed the OVER and nearly 53 percent of the games played above the total over the past six weeks. But the UNDER still holds the majority for the season hitting on 53.4 percent of the games.
I was 11-4 (73.3%) on my total picks over the previous five weeks before stubbing my toe. I’ll talk about the success on my last week’s total picks first to hopefully bring positive vibes back. I like the Bengals offense and I’m a fan of Joe Burrow from his college days leading LSU to a national championship. The Bengals haven’t been as sharp this season and losing Ja’Marr Chase is an impactful blow. However, there are playmakers and they did that with Burrow tossing four TDs and Tee Higgins catching nine passes for 148 yards in the 37-30 triumph.
Now the not so good. I certainly didn’t expect the Ravens to struggle as much as they did against Carolina. Baltimore scored a season-low and got bailed out by the defense in the 13-3 win. The Ravens allowed just 36 rushing yards, intercepted two Baker Mayfield passes and sacked him four times while holding the Panthers to 3 of 13 on third down. The OVER never had a chance. I also got bamboozled by the Giants, who allowed a season-high in their 31-18 loss to Detroit. New York scored two fourth quarter touchdowns, the last with less than five minutes to play putting the total over 45.5. The off week motivates me to dig deeper on the NFL Week 12 schedule to find the top total plays.
NFL Week 12
NFL Week 12 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays of Week 12
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Pick: UNDER 36
Both teams are a mess on offense with quarterback play a big reason why. The Panthers have elected to start Sam Darnold with hopes of sparking a sluggish offense that managed 205 yards and one field goal last week against Baltimore. It’s hard to find continuity with a third different starter in as many weeks, and it’s been nearly a year since Darnold last started a game. Don’t expect too much from him on Sunday.
The Broncos are the lowest scoring team in the NFL and they’ve done it by being consistently bad. They’ve scored 17 points or less in all but two games and average just 14.7 points. Leading rusher Melvin Gordon was released after a costly fumble in the loss to Las Vegas, but their problems run much deeper. Denver is 9-1 against the UNDER this season.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: OVER 43
Heck, the way the Rams are playing KC could hit this number on their own. With the injury to Cooper Kupp and Darrel Henderson being let go I can see why oddsmakers have the total at 43. When the clubs last met in 2018 they had one of the highest scoring games in NFL history with LA prevailing 54-51. A lot of the players are different, but Patrick Mahomes is still around and he can dissect any defense with surgeon-like precision.
The Super Bowl champs are a huge disappointment ranking near the bottom in several key offensive categories. They probably won’t score a lot with Bryce Perkins possibly getting the start, but putting up 20 like they did last week against the Saints should be enough to carry the OVER.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: OVER 43
The Niners looked sharp during their current three-game winning streak and rolled the Cards with an impressive array of weapons. Adding Christian McCaffrey to the group just made them a lot stronger and I don’t see the Saints stopping them on a consistent basis. Jimmy Garoppolo tossed four scoring passes in the 38-10 win getting all his weapons involved.
Andy Dalton has settled down the QB position in New Orleans with his best game of the season last week. He completed 84 percent of his passes for 260 yards and three TDs giving the Saints a sneaky good offense. They rank 10th in yards and average nearly 23 points. As long as they don’t turn the ball over the group should produce enough to reach the OVER.
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