I came close to hitting another three-team winner on my NFL Week 11 teaser picks, but unfortunately close doesn’t count. If you lose one you may all well lose them all. It’s the coming close part that inspires bettors to return always thinking ‘I’ll get it next time.’ Well, the next time is here with Week 12 of the NFL season getting started with a tripleheader on Thanksgiving. Buying points to tease a spread or total in your favor is supposed to make betting easier. However, with the unpredictable nature of the NFL it doesn’t always work out the way it’s supposed to.
On my winning Week 10 teaser ticket I didn’t have to tease the lines with all my teams paying off on the closing numbers. Last week was a different story and a good example of how the tease works. I backed the Bears +3 in their matchup with the Falcons teasing the line to +9. It turns out I needed the points for a winner since the Bears lost by three, 27-24. And there was a similar situation in the Carolina-Baltimore game. The Ravens were -12.5 and teasing the line down to -6.5 was a winning move. Baltimore won 13-3.
It’s nice to feel good about the picks you nailed, but again the goal is to win every game and I didn’t do that with the pillow fight between the Jets and Patriots causing me distress. I know both teams are strong defensively, but in a game geared toward offense and scoring you don’t often see such a low point total. Jets’ QB Zach Wilson was so bad he got benched for the Week 12 tilt against the Bears. The Jets managed only a field goal and the game was tied 3-3 until the final seconds when a punt return touchdown won the game for New England. Even teasing the total to a ridiculously low 32.5 wasn’t enough. It’s time to look at the Week 12 NFL schedule for my teaser pick winners.
NFL Week 12
NFL Week 12 Betting Lines
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
Opening Line: Bears +6.5
Teaser Line: Bears +12.5
With backup QBs likely starting for both sides points are poised to be at a premium so teasing the Bears to +12.5 might as well be +20. I say likely because there’s an outside chance Justin Fields starts after sustaining a shoulder injury last week. If not, Trevor Siemian gets the nod. An experienced player with a number of starts on his resume, Siemian doesn’t have the skill set Fields does and the offense won’t be as exciting, but it’s not a complete drop off.
Wilson has his share of doubters and he’s done nothing to change the narrative that the Jets wasted a first round pick on him. Instead of going with veteran Joe Flacco, the Jets will give Mike White a crack. White threw for 405 yards in an upset of Cincinnati last season but otherwise has been average. I don’t see the Jets doing enough to cover the teased line.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Opening Line: Titans +2
Teaser Line: Titans +8
Winners of two straight and seven of their last eight, the Titans are rolling. With a comfortable lead in the AFC South they have their sights set on the team that bounced them from the playoffs last season. In a surprising upset the Bengals beat the AFC’s top seed in Cincinnati, 19-16, as a 4-point dog.
The return of Ryan Tannehill has settled the offense after the club relied on a heavy dose of Derrick Henry in his absence. With more balance the Titans should befuddle Cincy’s defense, which struggled against rookie Kenny Pickett last week surrendering 30 points. The Bengals opened things up against a good Steelers defense, but it was still a one score affair. That makes me a winner on this teased line.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Opening Line: 49ers -9.5
Teaser Line: 49ers -3.5
With the Niners playing as well as they have since acquiring Christian McCaffrey, I don’t expect them to falter against the Saints. New Orleans has had problems stopping teams and the Niners have weapons with McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Hell, they made Jimmy Garoppolo look like Johnny Unitas on Monday night.
I’m teasing the line down because the Saints are sneaky good on offense. They turn the ball over more than any team in the NFL causing them numerous problems. Andy Dalton has done a good job at QB and two of their wins occurred when they didn’t commit a turnover. Valuing the football last week resulted in a 27-20 win over the Rams, so they are good enough to keep it close.
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