Did I say I’m a huge fan of teasers? Well, that’s true and even I can’t believe the good fortune on my picks over the last several weeks. My heater continued in Week 9 hitting all three three-team teasers for the fifth time in six weeks. The idea of teasing a line is to help bettors in their picks and eventually produce more winners. Buying additional points comes at a cost since they are supposed to help the bettor thus the payout isn’t as large. But that’s offset with consistent wins. And I’ve definitely offset things the last few weeks.
As it turns out I didn’t need to tease the lines for my Week 9 picks with winners that would have looked good on a parlay. Oh well, that happens and besides winning is the most important thing. I had a good idea defense would be lacking the Chicago-Miami game especially after the Bears traded away two of their best defenders. It was a battle of young quarterbacks that stole the show, though. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields each tossed three TD passes and Fields added 178 yards rushing and another score. The teams nearly hit the teased total of 39 by halftime and easily cashed the OVER with the Dolphins prevailing 35-32.
There was also little drama in my other two games. Jacksonville emerged with a 27-20 upset win over Las Vegas, though there were some tense moments early. Teasing the line to Jags +7.5 didn’t look like enough when the Raiders jumped to a 17-0 advantage. But the Jags scored the final 20 points to get the 27-20 victory. I had to wait until Sunday night with another winning ticket coming down to the Titans with a teased line of +18.5 against the Chiefs. KC avoided the upset with a late touchdown to tie the game and a field goal in OT for the 20-17 win. Success is fleeting at the betting window so I’ll move on to Week 10 of the NFL schedule looking to continue the heater on my teaser picks.
NFL Week 10 Betting Lines
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Line: Colts +6
Teaser Line: Colts +12
I’m not a fan of the Colts and it’s safe to say they’ve underachieved this season. The team moved on from Frank Reich bringing in former player Jeff Saturday as interim coach. We do tend to see teams respond when a coaching is made and I’m not betting on the Colts to win the game only to stay within the teased line of 12. It will come down to stopping Vegas since the Colts are the lowest scoring team in the NFL.
Three blown leads of 17 points or more this season has the Raiders thinking about what might have been. Vegas had difficulty stringing 60 minutes of football together with second half collapses being the narrative in Josh McDaniels’ debut season. And the inconsistent play of Derek Carr will keep this game close making the Colts at +12 on the teased line a strong play.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Opening Total: 37
Teaser Total: 43
Here I am backing the UNDER on the Broncos again, and it makes sense since they’ve played below the closing total in seven of eight games. There is hope that the off week helped after Denver erupted for 21 points in a win over Jacksonville in Week 8. It was just the second time they scored more than 16 points. An offense that struggles to score bolstered by a stingy defense leads to a lot of low-scoring affairs, and I anticipate another, so teasing the total to 43 is a shrewd move.
Tennessee nearly pulled off the upset last week in KC using a bend-but-don’t-break defense and a heavy dose of Derrick Henry. With Ryan Tannehill likely sidelined again I expect more of the same. The Titans allowed an average of just over 15 points during a five-game winning streak and held the NFL’s highest scoring team to fewer than 20 points in regulation. I’ll take the UNDER on the teased total.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Opening Line: Packers +6
Teaser Line: Packers +12
This isn’t a knock against the Cowboys, who bullied the Bears 49-29 in Week 8 before their bye. But if Green Bay has any chance of getting back in the playoff picture they need to win games now. The Packers offense has been painful to watch with Aaron Rodgers struggling. He tossed three picks in last week’s loss to Detroit with two of them in the red zone.
Desperation is a great motivator and Green Bay is desperate having lost five in a row. They’ve played well enough on defense, but in a cruel twist the offense hasn’t been able to hold up its end of the deal. Rodgers has had some great games against Dallas in the past and I’m betting on another to get me a win on my teaser pick.
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