There is an age-old belief that NFL prop bets are like playing the lottery. Many believe there isn’t much science to prop betting that it’s a lot about random luck. Other players point out that there are so many props listed these days that you can find some in which a handicapping analysis is possible. Further, insiders will often confide that sportsbooks don’t put as much effort into their prop bet lists. Offsetting that is the fact that the house edge is usually higher for prop bets compared to the standard pointspread. Sometimes absurdly higher. With that in mind, let’s look at NFL props betting and some basic smart strategies.
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What is a Props Bet?
A props bet can range from something rather pertinent about the game itself to the wacky, such as will the opening coin flip land heads or tails? Or what color will the Gatorade be poured on the winning coach? More standard prop bets are if a football player will go over or under total yards, touchdowns, receptions, sacks, field goals, and more. The possibilities have become endless. The question is, what is the best approach?
Bet Props for Fun or Props for Profit
There is nothing wrong with betting on NFL props for the fun of it. The Super Bowl is the best example of this. You can even wager on various Super Bowl commercial props. These are “fun money” types of bets. But for the more serious gambler who wants to win money, the first rule of thumb is to only wager on props that can be handicapped and analyzed.
Handicapping NFL Props
Some basics can easily be verified for the sharps that choose to bet on props that can be analyzed. One of the first things to check is if a player has a certain team that he always excels against. Counter to that is a team that seems to have a player’s number. This factor would come into play as far as various in-game props for items such as yardage or touchdown totals. Other intangibles can factor into props.
Never discount a motivational edge or disadvantage. Some players are clutch and rise to the occasion with everything on the line. Others excel when the spotlight is off of them.
Football Props Factors
In pro football, great players or teams can occasionally be rendered helpless in road games at certain venues. You would want to bet against them in that specific situation. Under the total for yardage or touchdowns would be an example. Then some teams are “jinxed” against other teams. It doesn’t seem to go their way against certain opponents, coaches, defenses, or quarterbacks.
Betting against basic props of such teams and players would make sense. From there, a great quarterback against a bad pass defense could well go over the total on his props. By contrast, a strong defense can keep quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers under the total on their props. Weather is another factor that could affect football props.
Quarterbacks Props Factors
NFL quarterbacks have their favorite teams to go up against. There are certain clubs that NFL quarterbacks own and light up regularly. By contrast, some teams turn the tables and dominate the quarterback. Therefore, it makes a lot of sense to study the past performance of quarterbacks against their opponents. Weather is another factor to consider. Some quarterbacks thrive in the cold, while others prefer hot weather. By checking a quarterback game log, you can ascertain which weather patterns help or detract from a quarterback. This factor also applies to games in domed stadiums.
And then there is the style of play factor. Some quarterbacks can pick apart blitzing or zone teams and vice versa. Again, the game log will be the best tell of what to expect.
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