Michael Thomas got paid this offseason. The New Orleans Saints made Thomas the highest-paid wide receiver in the league on July 31, signing him to a five-year, $100 million extension. Thomas had outperformed his rookie contract during his first three seasons in the league by a significant amount, and he was deservedly rewarded. He will look to have an even better season in 2019.
Michael Thomas 2019 Receiving Yards
Over 1275.5 -124
Under 1275.5 +106
Odds Analysis
Incredibly, we have seen Thomas improve in each of his three seasons in the NFL. He exploded on the scene in 2016, catching 92 passes for over 1,100 yards, and he was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal campaign for the saints. Thomas was even better in 2017, being named to the Pro Bowl after catching 104 passes for 1,245 yards, but his best season came last year.
Michael Thomas led the league in receptions by catching 125 passes despite playing on a Saints team that was ahead most of the time. He posted an 85 percent catch rate, which is nuts for a wide receiver, and he posted his first 1,400-yard season. Thomas was named a Pro Bowler and a First Team All Pro at the end of the year.
Offensive Scheme
The Saints are not the pass-happy team we have seen in the past. Since Alvin Kamara was taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Saints have run the ball a lot more and ranked 5th in the league in run play percentage last season. Some of that is due to the Saints getting out to early leads and taking the air out of the ball, but more importantly, Drew Brees is 40 and can’t chuck it around like he did earlier in the decade.
Brees’ passing numbers over the last six games of the regular season prove that point. He threw for under 200 yards in five of New Orleans’ last six games, and that’s cause for concern if you want to bet Thomas to go over his total.
There is no doubt that Thomas is the No. 1 guy in New Orleans. He is Brees’ favorite target as a big, strong possession receiver, and he will see a lot of passes thrown his way. Other than perhaps Jared Cook, no one on the roster is likely to take away his targets when Brees is on the field.
The caveat there is how much Brees will play this season. Brees’ age is a concern, but the versatility of Taysom Hill might lead to Payton in packages exclusively for Hill. He saw a good deal of action last year, and he should see even more in 2019.
Injury Risk
During his career, Thomas has only missed one game due to injury. That came during his rookie season in 2016 when he missed a Week 14 game with a foot injury.
The Play
At first glance, it looks like over is the play. There are no other great options at wide receiver other than Thomas, and his trend line has gone up for three straight seasons.
However, I’m a little skeptical in Brees and New Orleans’ ability to move the ball through the air. The way the Saints ended the season is concerning, and Brees is not the same quarterback in open-air stadiums that he is in a dome. All but one of New Orleans’ road games will be in an open-air stadium this season, and that will hurt Thomas’ numbers.
Through no fault of his own, I think Thomas will come up just short in terms of his yardage numbers. He will remain the team’s leading receiver and should make the Pro Bowl, but Brees won’t get him the ball enough in good spots.
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