Depending upon where you do your shopping at online sportsbooks, Joe Burrow has either a 98 or 99 percent implied probability to be the very first quarterback taken off the board when the NFL Draft commences online the evening of April 23. A late-season injury incurred by Tua Tagovailoa has all but secured the former LSU shot caller hearing his name called first once Roger Goodell steps up to the podium in real-time to kick off the festivities. Fading Burrow as a -$10K chalk to become the draft’s first overall pick looks foolish, though that +2500 return will certainly have many throwing some beer money on it in hopes of the Bengals continuing to do things only the Bengals would do. Which brings us to the premise of this piece; who goes No. 2 - will it be Tua, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love? I got questions y’all!
Tua Tagovailoa -400
Justin Herbert +250
Jordan Love +1600
Joe Burrow +2500
Jacob Eason +10000
Jake Fromm +15000
Jalen Hurts +15000
Anthony Gordon +50000
James Morgan +50000
Nate Stanley +50000
Before making a prediction as to which quarterback follows Burrow in the pecking order, let’s take a look at the overall landscape of the prop from its genesis to where it’s currently situated. Tagovailoa initially hit the board as the -350 favorite to be the second quarterback drafted; it’s up to -400. Justin Herbert saw his odds open at +275 and currently sit at +250. The drum was seriously beaten for Jordan Love about a month ago, but it’s quieted down considerably evidenced by his odds bloating up to +1600 after opening 10-1. After that, it’s a who’s who of heavily dogged quarterbacks with the two Jakes – Eason and Fromm – likely to go in the second round and beyond. For all intents and purposes, this is a battle between Tagovailoa and Herbert, but it wouldn’t come across as shocking if the Love machine picked up more steam in the days leading up to the draft.
At -400, Tua is believed to have an 80 percent probability shot of being the second quarterback drafted in this class according to the linemakers. I personally believe they’re selling him short. Regardless of Tua proving to be injury prone and not showing anything at the combine, I’d still put it closer to 90 if not 95 percent. For me, there’s still value with the current offering and you should pounce now before it gets even chalkier come April 23. The only thing left to figure out is which lucky team ultimately takes home the spoils. As it stands, trades will be made; both up and down, to acquire his services which makes taking in the beginning of the draft all the more exciting.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry sports bettor already believes it to be a lock that the Detroit Lions will trade down and acquire more draft picks as well as its expected pick on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins have to trade up. No wait, it must be the Chargers. Don’t forget about the Panthers! My advice would be to silence all that noise. Regardless of it all, I firmly expect the Miami Dolphins to make Tua Tagovailoa their first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Whether it’s at No. 3 or No. 5, it won’t matter. As crazy as it may seem, things really look to be on the up and up in South Beach entering Brian Flores’ second tour of duty. The team closed last year out extremely strong with five wins and six pointspread covers over its final nine games after the offense finally started to figure things out. As great a story “FitzMagic” has been in doses through the years, he’s not the long term answer. Miami needs a stud shot caller to play with the likes of DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki for years to come! Tagovailoa is that shot caller, and he will be making his home in South Beach for a plethora of seasons.
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