Matt Ryan Passing Yards and Touchdowns - NFL Player Props

By  Jonathan Willis

Monday, August 12th, 2019

The Atlanta Falcons have gotten a lot of buzz as one of the teams to watch in 2019. Injuries to their defense ruined their chances of making a third consecutive playoff appearance, but they were in the top eight in total offense for the fifth straight season, and they could be the best offense in the league in 2019. As such, Matt Ryan could be in line for a huge season, and only Patrick Mahomes is projected to throw for more yards according to oddsmakers.

Matt Ryan 2019 Passing Yards

Over 4500.5: -118

Under 4500.5: -112

Matt Ryan 2019 Touchdown Passes

Over 32.5: +131

Under 32.5: -165

Odds Analysis

Coming into this season, Matt Ryan has thrown for 4000 or more yards in eight straight seasons and he has surpassed 4500 yards in six of the last seven campaigns. He has had plenty of chances to throw the ball, throwing over 600 passes in five of the last seven seasons, and he is likely to throw more than 600 passes once more this year.

The NFC South is the most wide-open division in football in terms of passing offenses, so Ryan is going to have a lot of opportunities to throw. Tampa Bay led the league in passing yards in 2018, Atlanta was fourth in the league in the category, and Drew Brees holds the record for most consecutive 4,000-yard seasons even though he fell a few yards short last year.

Offensive Scheme

Atlanta might have the best trio of receivers in the league. Julio Jones has been one of the NFL’s best receivers since coming into the NFL in 2011, and he is likely to have another big year. He caught 113 passes and averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game in 2018.

Calvin Ridley might be poised to have a breakout season. Ridley was the team’s No. 1 pick last year, and he showed a lot of promise as a rookie. His development has been one of the main storylines of the offseason. If the young wide receiver is as good as advertised, this could be an incredibly lethal passing attack.

Mohamed Sanu is a great third option, while Austin Hooper hauled in a lot of passes last year too. The lack of Tevin Coleman will hurt the passing game a bit, but Ito Smith is ready to take over Coleman’s role.

Injury Risk

Since entering the league, Matt Ryan has played all but two games in an 11-year career. He is just about as reliable as they come, so there is no real injury risk unless you believe he might be “due” to have an injury.

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The Play

I love the over for Ryan’s passing yards. Throwing for 4,500 yards isn’t as difficult as it used to be, and Ryan has shown a proclivity to do that. There’s no reason to believe he will fall off or get injured, and the Falcons should have one of the deadliest offenses in the league.

I’m sold on Ridley. The thought of he and Jones teaming up together must be a tantalizing one for Ryan, and a frightening one for opposing defenses. If Ridley takes the next step, that will open things up for the Falcons, resulting in huge days for Ryan.

The touchdown prop I’m not as sold on just because of its somewhat fluky nature. Ryan has only thrown for 30 touchdowns or more three times in his career, but I would rather take the over than the under considering the juice on this prop. There are enough red zone weapons through the air, and I believe we’ll see a lot of big play touchdowns for Atlanta.

NFL Betting Odds

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