Week 4 NCAAF Picks – Arkansas at Auburn Football Odds

By  Jonathan Willis

Tuesday, September 18th, 2018

Week 4 NCAAF Picks

The Auburn Tigers are looking at an eerily similar situation to last year. Auburn is seen by almost everyone as one of the best teams in the country, but the Tigers have already lost one game and need to keep winning if they have any hope of making it to the College Football Playoff. They are heavy favorites in their Week 4 game against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Under Chad Morris, Arkansas is undergoing a complete overhaul, and it’s going to take some time for this team to be successful running the quick strike offense he wants.

This contest in Week 4 will go down Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu

Arkansas +30
Auburn -30
Total 56.5

Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers clearly erred when they set this line. Initially, Auburn was made a 24-point favorite on the CFB betting line for this one. That wasn’t nearly enough, as the money has rolled in on the Tigers for the first 36 hours. Auburn is now a 30-point favorite per the NCAAF betting odds.

The total opened at 56 on Monday and quickly moved up a tick to 56.5.

Position to Watch

It looks like the quarterback carousel at Arkansas will continue for another week. Cole Kelley was the starter for the season opener against Eastern Illinois, but he was overshadowed by Ty Storey. Storey averaged more than 15 yards per attempt and tossed three touchdowns, earning him the start the next week against Colorado State.

Storey had a terrible outing against Colorado State, going 5-13 for 36 yards with two interceptions and gave way to Kelley once more. Kelley was the starter last week against North Texas, but he frustrated Morris and offensive coordinator Joe Craddock by tossing four interceptions in a 27-point loss.

True freshmen Connor Noland and John Stephen Jones also saw action in the loss to the Mean Green, but neither quarterback had much success. Morris named Storey as his starter for the Auburn game, yet don’t be surprised if Kelley and Noland seem some time on the field too. Arkansas wants to settle on just one quarterback, but Morris wants to make sure he has the right guy.

Matchup to Watch

Arkansas has had a hard time stopping opponents’ passing attacks this year. K.J. Carta-Samuels and Mason Fine both had good games against the Razorbacks’ defense, and that’s something that Jarrett Stidham will look to exploit.

Stidham played well in Auburn’s first two games of the season, but he made some mistakes last week in the loss to LSU. He tossed an interception that led to a short field and a quick touchdown for LSU on Auburn’s first series, and he later threw a pick in LSU territory.

He will look to wipe that performance from his recent memory, and he should be able to have a big day against this defense. Arkansas is not experienced in the secondary, and Auburn’s offense is much better than that of Colorado State or North Texas. Stidham was a first team all-SEC pick last year, but he has yet to have that breakout game this season.

Free ATS Pick

This is a tough spot to be in if you’re Arkansas. The Razorbacks are transitioning from one offensive philosophy to another, and it will take some time for a full-on install to work. None of the quarterbacks Morris has have had much success in his system, and that’s something that will only come with time.

Auburn is where Arkansas wants to be. Gus Malzahn and Morris are cut from the same cloth when it comes to offensive systems and playcalling, and that could give the Razorbacks defense a bit of an edge. This is going to be a blowout, but I think Arkansas can stay within the number.

College Football Odds: Auburn 41, Arkansas 17

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