Week 4 NCAAF Betting – Kansas State at West Virginia Football Picks

By  Jonathan Willis

Tuesday, September 18th, 2018

Week 4 NCAAF Betting

Don’t look now, but Dana Holgorsen has a quarterback. The West Virginia Mountaineers are a dark horse in the Big 12 with Will Grier at the helm. Their game against North Carolina State last week was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, but the Mountaineers lit up their first two opponents this season. They hammered Tennessee and Youngstown State, and they are now set to turn their sights on conference foes. The first of those will be the Kansas State Wildcats in Week 4 of the season.

Watch this Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu

Kansas State +16.5
West Virginia -16.5
Total 61

Odds Analysis

West Virginia opened up as a 14-point favorite per the NCAAF betting odds. That number wasn’t around long though as money came in quickly on the Mountaineers. They rose throughout Sunday and Monday, and WVU is currently a 16.5-point favorite on the NCAAF betting line as of Tuesday morning.

The total in this game has dropped a bit since it opened. On Monday, the oddsmakers put the over/under at 62 on the CFB betting odds, but that has since moved down a point.

Player to Watch

Grier has been a rock star since arriving in Morgantown. He made the Mountaineers a serious contender in the Big 12 before getting injured in the penultimate game of the regular season, and he has an outside chance at winning the Heisman Trophy this year.

In 2017, he completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,400 yards and threw 34 touchdown passes. He has had two fantastic outings to start the 2018 campaign too, completing 76.7 percent of his passes for 761 yards with nine touchdowns and an interception.

He could have a big game against Kansas State. The Wildcats’ defense looks good on paper, but Mississippi State had a lot of open receivers running free two weeks ago. Grier has the mobility to escape the initial rush and find a man downfield, and the Mountaineers are going to have multiple big plays. Kansas State is also dealing with injuries to two starters in the secondary, and if Denzel Goolsby and Kevion McGee can’t play, that would hurt the Wildcats even more.

Matchup to Watch

Kansas State’s offense has rarely looked pretty under head coach Bill Snyder, but the Wildcats are really struggling this year. They are averaging just 363 yards through their first three games of the year, and two of those came against FCS South Dakota and UTSA.

Skylar Thompson has taken over the quarterbacking duties from Alex Delton, but he hasn’t been too impressive. He struggled against South Dakota and Mississippi State before finally having a good outing last week in the win over UTSA. That gives Snyder some confidence in his signal caller at least.

Of course, quarterbacks have to be able to run in Snyder’s system, and Thompson can do that. He isn’t fast, but he can pick up tough yards when need be. He is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and he will aim to keep Kansas State in manageable down and distance scenarios.

Free ATS Pick

Keep an eye on the status of Kansas State’s two defensive backs headed into this one. If the Wildcats don’t have those two, the secondary is going to have a real tough time stopping David Sills V, Gary Jennings Jr., and Marcus Simms from running free.

Look for Grier to have a big game in a statement win for the Mountaineers. Kansas State just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with West Virginia, and this isn’t an offense designed to come from behind. West Virginia is one of my favorite plays this weekend.

College Football Odds: West Virginia 45, Kansas State 17

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