It looks like the Mississippi State Bulldogs found the right man to replace Dan Mullen. Joe Moorhead has thrived during his short time in Starkville. It doesn’t look like the offense has missed a beat with Moorhead at the helm, and the Bulldogs look like a team that can hold its own in the toughest division in college football. In Week 4, Mississippi State is facing its first conference test against a team that is on cloud nine. The Kentucky Wildcats are still celebrating after picking up their first win over Florida in more than three decades
This matchup in Week 4 will take place on Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State -9.5
Kentucky +9.5
Total 55.5
Odds Analysis
Money has been trickling in on the home team since the spread came out on Sunday. Initially, Mississippi State was a 10.5-point favorite on the CFB betting line, but that line didn’t take long to move to 10 and then down to 9.5.
The total has moved in the other direction. Oddsmakers set the number at 54 on the NCAAF betting line on Monday evening, and since then money on the over has caused the line to shoot up 1.5 points.
Matchup to Watch
The Kentucky Wildcats are going to want to run the ball with one of the nation’s most underrated running backs. Benny Snell was a workhorse in Kentucky’s first two games this season, running for 125 yards against Central Michigan and 175 yards against Florida. He averaged better than six yards a carry in both of those games, and Mark Stoops is going to want to keep handing him the ball.
However, Mississippi State has one of the stingiest run defenses in the country. The Bulldogs are allowing just 2.5 yards per carry through the first three weeks of the season, and they limited Kansas State’s ground game to just 3.2 yards per run. First Team All-SEC selection Montez Sweat leads the way, but there is plenty of praise to go around for a unit that has picked up at least eight tackles for loss in every game so far this season.
If the Bulldogs can shut down Snell, Kentucky is in trouble. Quarterback Terry Wilson has made some big throws, but he has been pretty inconsistent too. He has had a tough time completing mid- and long-range passes, and he has tossed three picks in three games.
Player to Watch
Nick Fitzgerald has had accuracy issues during his three years as the starter in Starkville, but Moorhead has done a fantastic job of working around those. He has given Fitzgerald a confidence boost with his playcalling, and that has led to increased production out of his quarterback in both the running and passing game.
Fitzgerald has been a fantastic runner this season, he eclipsed 100 yards on the ground in both of his games and he is one of the best RPO quarterbacks in college football. His reads have been great, and that has helped him shred opposing defenses despite the accuracy woes.
He will be going against a Kentucky secondary that has been very good this year. Quarterbacks have completed just 51 percent of their passes against this senior-laden unit, so look for Fitzgerald to keep the ball on the ground a lot.
Free ATS Pick
I love Mississippi State this season. I believe the oddsmakers are continuing to undervalue this team despite their dominance on both sides of the ball. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ metrics have the Bulldogs as the fifth-best team in the country, and this offense should only keep getting better with more time under Moorhead. Kentucky doesn’t have a great homefield advantage like many of the other SEC teams do, and the Wildcats are just 12-23-2 ATS at home under Mark Stoops.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State 37, Kentucky 17
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
