Penn State Nittany Lions Win Total Odds Analysis

Penn State Nittany Lions Win Total Odds Analysis

The Penn State Nittany Lions have started to recruit at a higher level in recent years, which should mean some good times ahead. However, there are always peaks and valleys for programs, and there is concern 2019 will be a rebuilding campaign for Penn State. The Nittany Lions lost a lot of talent off last year’s squad and need to fill some high-profile holes, most importantly at quarterback following the departure of Trace McSorley. Penn State might not be a top contender for the Big Ten title this season but there is some cautious optimism that this group can be better than projected. The current college football odds have Penn State dropping a handful of games in 2019.

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Penn State regular season win total

o8.5 +102
u8.5 -122

Penn State Nittany Lions Win Total Odds Analysis

Penn State can afford to lose three regular season games this year and still hit the “over” on its win projection, but any more than that will result in the “under” being the right call. The majority of bettors believe Penn State will win fewer than eight games this year, making it the favorite.

The Nittany Lions begin the season with a matchup against Idaho and round out the non-conference slate against Buffalo and Pittsburgh. A road game against Maryland begins conference play, and that is followed by games against Purdue and Iowa. Penn State hosts Michigan on October 19 but will still likely be the underdog there. Next comes games against Michigan State, Minnesota and Indiana before a showdown with Ohio State. Penn State wraps up the regular season against Rutgers.

Penn State Odds

McSorley helped lead Penn State to great success over the past three seasons, as the Nittany Lions won 31 games over that span. He was a sixth-round pick of the Ravens, while electric running back Miles Sanders went in the second round to the Eagles. Tommy Stevens was projected to take over as the starting quarterback but he stunned everyone by transferring after spring football. Now the focus is on Sean Clifford, who will need to step in and prove he can effectively move the ball against some stout Big Ten defenses.

K.J. Hamler will be his top returning receiver and there are plenty of question marks beyond him. Penn State’s had some awesome running backs of late and Ricky Slade and Journey Brown seem to have the inside track on getting carries in 2019. Penn State brings back three starters on the offensive line, though it must replace star left tackle Ryan Bates.

The defense will aim to do some heavy lifting early in the season as the offense gets up to speed. Defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos had eight sacks a season ago while Robert Windsor added seven-and-a-half, which is a great start up front. Micah Parsons is ready to take over a key role at linebacker, while cornerback John Reid and safety Garett Taylor highlight the secondary.

Key Stats or Trends

Penn State has been on a steady uptick under coach James Franklin, and while last year wasn’t great, the team still finished with nine regular season victories. For most of the recent stretch, McSorley has played a critical role. The Nittany Lions should be able to win many games on the strength of their defense this year, but if the passing game never develops, the ceiling won’t be super high. All eyes will be on the quarterback position for Penn State, as it will likely decide if this team surpasses its projected win total in 2019.

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