At the onset of the season, the Texas Longhorns were ranked #1 in the AP Poll and picked to win the national championship. And the new starting quarterback, Arch Manning, was being touted as a potential Heisman Trophy candidate.
Instead, Texas and Manning have been one of the biggest disappointments in the college football betting season.
Texas is likely to miss the College Football Playoff, while its arch rivals could win it all.
Indeed, the Texas A&M Aggies are undefeated and one of the favorites to win the national championship.
The Aggies are college football’s top surprise power team.
This Black Friday matchup of hated rivals will generate one of the biggest betting handles of the year.
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Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns Odds at Bookmaker
DKR Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX, will host the matchup between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Longhorns on Friday, November 28, 2025. Kickoff time is at 7:30 p.m. ET with television coverage on ABC.
Oddsmakers opened with Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite and Texas as a 2.5-point dog.
Texas A&M is a -146 moneyline favorite with Texas as a +122 moneyline dog.
Texas A&M and Texas opened with a total of 51.5.
Texas A&M Aggies
Last game, the Texas A&M Aggies won 48-0 over Samford as 54-point home favorites. The game went under the total of 59.5.
Texas A&M is 11-0 straight up, 5-6 against the spread, and 8-3 over/under the total.
Texas A&M ranks 12th for total offense, 27th for passing, 25th for rushing, 10th for scoring, and 77th for fewest turnovers committed.
Texas A&M ranks 19th for total defense, 26th vs. the pass, 29th vs. the rush, 41st for fewest points allowed, and 132nd for takeaways.
Texas A&M has covered three out of its most recent five games. Texas A&M went over the total in five of its last six matchups.
Texas Longhorns
Last game, the Texas Longhorns won 52-37 against the Arkansas Razorbacks as 8-point home favorites. The game went over the total of 57.5.
Texas is 8-3 straight up, 3-7-1 against the spread, and 5-6 over/under the total.
Overall, Texas ranks 71st for total offense, 34th for passing, 107th for rushing, 47th for scoring, and 8th for fewest turnovers committed.
Texas ranks 40th for total defense, 110th vs. the pass, 7th vs. the rush, 29th for fewest points allowed, and 43rd for takeaways.
Late on, Texas has covered one out of its most recent five games. Texas went over the total in three of its last four matchups.
Texas A&M at Texas Betting Trends
Texas A&M has covered three of its most recent four away games. The Aggies went over the total in 14 of their last 17 road tilts.
By contrast, Texas has been a weak betting value at home.
The Longhorns got the money in only three of their most recent nine home games. Texas went over the total in three of its most recent five home games.
In the series between Texas and Texas A&M, the Aggies have had the advantage.
Texas A&M covered five of its last eight games against Texas. The Aggies and Longhorns went under the total in four of their last five meetings.
Specifically in Texas, the Aggies got the money in two of their most recent three visits. Texas and Texas A&M went under the total in their last four meetings at Texas.
Texas A&M at Texas Best Bets
Texas remains a major brand that will draw plenty of casual-sector support playing at home.
The Longhorns may get a discount because Texas A&M had a much more impressive season.
On the other hand, the Aggies will get a discount and offer potentially good value as the power road team.
In this situation, Texas is desperate to end a bad season on a great note.
But Texas A&M has too much for the Longhorns and has been the more reliable value in 2025.
Main Pick: Texas A&M Aggies
Over/Under Pick: Under the Total
Player Prop Picks: Arch Manning Under the Total Yards Total
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