What had been a good start on my college football under the radar picks turned sour in a big way last week with all three games coming out losers. The heater ran through the first four weeks of the season where I was clicking on 66.7 percent of my picks.
But the more you play the better the odds are of things evening out, and the house always has a way of coming out ahead.
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I went heavy on the MAC last week with the conference proving just how volatile it is. If the Falcons of Bowling Green helped out I could’ve had one winner, but the offense failed to show scoring just one touchdown in a 38-7 loss leaving me to ponder what might have been. The score fell below the total of 54.5 and of course I bet the OVER. Oh well, I’ll get that back with my other MAC game, right? Oops, not so fast. That didn’t work out either with Akron losing 55-34 to Ohio as an 11-point dog. Taking the points was a losing proposition in that game.
When the most popular player on a team is the punter you know something’s wrong. And the offense of the Iowa Hawkeyes is a downright mess. Unfortunately I learned my lesson too late backing the OVER in their game with Illinois. The total could have been half the 34.5 number and the teams would’ve still cashed the UNDER in the 9-6 Illini win. I’m always looking for games oddsmakers may have overlooked and while I didn’t find them last week, they’re out there. I’m still in the black for the season and look to get back to the winning ways with my Week 7 under the radar picks.
Cal Bears at Colorado Buffaloes ( +15 )
Colorado hasn’t been close in any of its games, which is why Karl Dorrell was fired after the most recent setback. The 43-20 loss at Arizona in Week 5 was the closest game the Buffs played so taking them with 14.5 points looks like a losing proposition. I would’ve liked a few more points, but I can’t be picky. And we see it quite often in every sport where a team has a positive response after a coaching change. Dorrell wasn’t the first pick when he took over prior to the 2020 season being in the right place at the right time following the sudden departure of Mel Tucker. A new head coach and defensive coordinator won’t completely turn the program around, but given an extra week to prepare for Cal allows Mike Sanford and Gerald Chatman to make their voices heard and I expect they’ll be competitive at least.
Texas State Bobcats at Troy Trojans ( -17 )
The Bobcats played arguably their best game of the season beating App State last week, the same team that beat Troy in Week 3. Going off those results Texas State is a no-brainer getting 17-points. But hold on and look at the totality of the results. Troy comes in with a three-game winning streak and payouts in their last four. And they’ve owned Texas State winning seven straight in the series while going 5-2 ATS. Two of those payout wins came when favored by more than 20 points. Despite their win last week the Bobcats have been outscored 64-49 in conference games and they are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. Troy has one of the best passing games in the Sun Belt and should score points against a TSU defense that allows 26 points per game.
New Mexico Lobos ( -6.5 ) at New Mexico State Aggies
You can throw out all the stats and records when these in-state rivals meet. And they’re hoping that’s exactly what happens since the numbers aren’t good on either side. At least the Lobos are a little better than the Aggies having a pair of wins on the season, though they have the same number of victories against FBS programs. NMSU thrashed a bad Hawai’i club in Week 4 and responded with a 21-7 loss against another bad team Florida International as a 16.5-point favorite in Week 5. The Lobos have been more competitive in their games though still losing three in a row while being outscored 96-34 by LSU, UNLV and Wyoming. The Lobos have won three straight in the series by an average of nearly 10 points and look like a good touchdown better than their counterpart entering this contest.
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