My profit margin dipped a little last week after missing on two of three under the radar picks. The strategy for throwing down on those games was sound, but the teams didn’t come through. It just shows that having success at the betting window week after week is a near impossibility. The key is to win more than you lose and so far I have a 66.7 percent success rate on my picks. The focus of these picks, though, is to highlight games that oddsmakers might overlook or take advantage of a spread or total that just doesn’t seem right.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
As we reach Week 4 of the college football season a lot of things are as they should be with the best teams in the land. Georgia climbed to No. 1 in the national rankings overtaking SEC rival Alabama, and the Bulldogs look just as good if not better than they did winning the national championship last season. They’ve allowed a total of 10 points in three games outscoring their victims by an average of 40 points.
There have been some surprises in the early part of the season. The Sun Belt Conference posted a few huge upsets in Week 2 and we saw a few more upsets last week. Wyoming beat Air Force as a 16.5 point dog and Southern Illinois was a two-touchdown dog beating Northwestern outright. Herm Edwards was fired after Arizona State was crushed by Eastern Michigan as a 17.5-point favorite. Those games are out there so let’s move ahead to Week 4 to see where we can fatten our bankroll on some under the radar picks.
Bowling Green Falcons ( +30.5 ) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
A lot of times we see a bias for the bigger conferences in play. Just because a school competes in the SEC or Big Ten doesn’t make them good. And when those teams lower down the pecking order get matched up against a Group of Five club we can see the odds skew. I don’t think Bowling Green is going to win this game, but they are coming off an impressive overtime win over Marshall, their first of the season, and played UCLA tough on the road in the opener. The Falcons had a second quarter lead before the roof caved in. They struggled offensively in that game but have gotten better since, though the stats are misleading. We saw the Bulldogs stumble down the stretch in a loss to LSU last week and I don’t think anyone questions that they have a better team. But we’ve seen all kinds of weird things happen and banking 30.5 points is inviting.
Western Michigan Broncos at San Jose State Spartans ( -6.5 )
Sometimes you have to look beyond the stats to pick a game, and this is one of those times. I’m not backing San Jose State because I think they’re a touchdown better than WMU, nope I’m backing the Spartans because they had a bye after nearly upsetting Auburn on the road in Week 2 while the Broncos were involved in an emotional contest with Pitt last week. After losing that game, WMU has to travel to the West Coast for this matchup, something they rarely do, with a couple of key figures banged up. Auburn is not among the elite in the SEC this season, but they are still a powerful club with an intense home field advantage. That the Spartans were within a touchdown after holding the lead at halftime was big, especially after they struggled in the opener barely getting by FCS Portland State.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Georgia State Panthers ( O/U 63.5 )
The teams can move the football and score points while defense has just been a suggestion this season. Georgia State has conceded at least 35 points in each of their first three setbacks while averaging nearly 28 points. Could it be that the Panthers were looking ahead to their Week 4 Sun Belt opener allowing 20-point underdog Charlotte to score a late touchdown in a 42-41 setback. Coastal, meanwhile improved to 3-0 with a comeback 38-26 win over Buffalo. Looking at the stats both teams are better on offense than they are on defense. The winning teams scored at least 31 points in each of the last four meetings and at least 42 points in each of the last two. When the Chants visited Atlanta two years ago they hung a 51 on the Panthers and have the passer in Grayson McCall to exploit one of the worst pass defenses in the FBS.
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