Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas AM Aggies Odds Analysis

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas AM Aggies Odds Analysis

Jimbo Fisher wasn’t paid a boat load of money to beat Texas State and Lamar. Nope, he was given the keys to the Brinks truck to beat SEC foes and lift the Texas AM Aggies to the College Football Playoff. It’s early in his tenure, but he’s failed so far. Fisher gets another crack at his mentor Nick Saban and the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, the Aggies’ second game this season against the No. 1 team and third against a top-10 foe. Alabama is a 16.5-point favorite on the current college football betting line. The Week 7 SEC West showdown takes place on October 12 from Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, and will air on CBS.

College Football Odds at

Alabama Crimson Tide -16.5
Texas AM Aggies +16.5
Over/Under 61

Alabama at Texas AM Odds Analysis

As expected in a heavyweight SEC tilt there has been plenty of action on this game. Bama opened as a 17.5-point favorite and the line dipped as low as -16 before getting pushed back to its current -16.5. If the line is going to attract sharp money it’s not going to happen until closer to kickoff. Sharps have hit the total, however. The over/under opened at 62, which seemed low for most folks, and a majority of the public backed the over. However, the number tumbled a point to 61 and could go lower.

Alabama Odds

They’ve faced enormous spreads all season so it’s not surprising that the Tide hasn’t been as successful against the line. Bama was favored by at least 33.5-points in four of their first five games with the other a 25.5-point line against South Carolina. The Tide covered against Duke (-33.5) and Southern Miss (-36.5), and they are 2-3 ATS this season. This is the shortest line Alabama has seen this year. Over their last 19 road games when playing as a favorite Bama is 18-1 SU. That success hasn’t translated to the spread, though, with just a 10-8-1 ATS mark in that span.

Texas AM Odds

The Aggies will get another chance at knocking off the No. 1 team in the country. They failed the first time around, losing, 24-10, at Clemson in Week 2, though they covered the spread in that matchup. Since Fisher took over the program prior to last season the Aggies have faced five top-10 teams going 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS with the over cashing in four of those games. The only straight up win was the epic 74-72 seven overtime game with LSU at Kyle Field at the end of last regular season.

Key Stats

With Tua Tagovailoa having another outstanding season throwing the football to the best group of receivers in college football, you can expect Alabama to score. The Aggies are an athletic group and they are the most talented team Bama has faced this season, but it’s going to be a chore to stop the offense. To counter that, it’s imperative AM controls the football and doesn’t turn it over. And Bama’s defense has shown cracks which makes that scenario more plausible. Four freshmen are starting up front for Bama and the group allowed Ole Miss backup quarterback John Rhys Plumlee to throw for 141 yards and two touchdowns with an additional 109 yards and a score on the ground as the Rebels became the fourth opponent in Bama’s last eight games to score at least 28 points.

Last Meeting

The Aggies know what to expect since they have first-hand knowledge after Tua shredded them last year. Tagovailoa threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another score in Alabama’s 45-23 victory. “He’s good. I mean he’s good,” Fisher said about Tua after the game. Bama entered the game ranked No. 1 in the country and spotted AM 24.5-points on the closing college football betting line. The Aggies kept it close for a while and were within 21-13 deep in the second quarter. Flashing their big-play capability, the Tide scored 10 points in the final 69 seconds of the half to put the contest out of reach. Kellen Mond didn’t have his best game completing just 16 of 33 for 196 yards with two picks. AM got the cover win while the teams cashed the over on the 59 total.

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