The Boston Red Sox won a franchise record 108 games and have now made it all the way to the World Series, to meet a team in the Los Angeles Dodgers that won 12 fewer games this year than last. Despite the win total differential, these two teams appear quite evenly matched which should lead to a fun first World Series meeting between these historic franchises. It’s quite impressive that we’ve yet to see a Boston versus Los Angeles series despite 33 combined appearances by the two squads.
The World Series between the Dodgers and Red Sox opens on Tuesday, October 23, 2018 at 8:09 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The Sox won 17 more games than the Dodgers in the regular season and get home field advantage as a result. They’ll open and close the series at home with the middle three games on the west coast at Dodger Stadium. Each game of this series will be broadcast on FOX.
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How Many Games in this Series?
There are two Over/Under odds for this game at 4.5 games and 6.5 games, essentially asking: Will this Series go end in a sweep? And, will this series go the distance? Likely, neither will happen. The World Series has gone seven games just 37 times in the 106 series under the seven-game format. That’s a 34.9-percent rate. There have been 21 World Series sweeps in Major League history. That’s 18.1-percent.
By the numbers, a seven-game series is twice as likely as a four-game one. That seems to make sense. The World Series is supposed to feature the best-of-the-best going head-to-head. The best of one league shouldn’t be so inferior to the best of another to lead to a sweep. Still, it happens. One team gets hot, another gets cold. Baseball is a marathon sport, but the postseason is more of a sprint.
We last had a sweep in the World Series in 2012 with the San Francisco Giants taking care of business against the Detroit Tigers. Since then, we’ve gotten three sweeps, a six-game series and a five-game series. Of late, it seems longer series are common. That’s certainly good if you’re a fan.
So, what are we left with for this series? Can we rely on history to tell us? If so, we should expect a five or six game series unless you go by recent history in which seven games seems likely.
Look for a deep series in this one. These are two evenly matched teams. They both have deep offenses, platoon options, sabermetrically inclined managers, good—but not great—bullpens, and solid rotations. These teams are evenly matched, on paper.
How Many Total Runs will be scored in the Series?
The answer to this one is dependent on the answer to the question: how many games will there be in this World Series?
We expect a longer series given how these two teams stack up on paper, giving them both more chances to plate runs.
These are two elite offenses with plenty of chances to play matchup baseball. These teams can score runs. While the front end of each rotation is stellar, and the Dodgers boast an NL best 3.19 rotation ERA, both bullpens have vulnerabilities.
Last World Series saw a ton of runs and a record number of home runs. The Game 5, 13-12 final is the best example of the wild ride we enjoyed last year.
Don’t look for the offense run quite as wild in 2018, but both teams will score runs. We will see a higher scoring series compared to average.
Who Will Win World Series MVP?
There are two ways to go with this. You can choose to go with the big-name players or you can go more obscure.
The big-name players are the chalk picks. Mookie Betts, J.D Martinez, Clayton Kershaw, and Manny Machado won’t pay great returns compared to others like Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts or Chris Taylor. That’s obvious. But are they that much more likely to win the award?
One would certainly expect Betts or Martinez to at least be in the conversation if the Red Sox win the series. Those are the two biggest cogs in the team’s order. Betts has struggled in the postseason to date, but Martinez has picked up the slack. These two are superstars for a reason: they produce. We have seen superstars win the award many times in the past, but we’ve also seen supporting players take home the award, too.
Last year, George Springer won the series MVP over Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander. A reasonable compare there would be Benintendi. The year before, Swiss-Army-Knife player Ben Zobrist took home the hardware. That could bode well for someone like Taylor.
Taylor is a good under-the-radar type pick in L.A. Of course, the team needs Kershaw and Kenley Jansen to pitched well to win, but Taylor could be the spark plug. He’s been great in October. He gets on base. He moves around. He makes defensive plays regardless of position.
Justin Turner is the leader of the offenses despite more limited power. We’re drawn to the long ball, but Turner’s probably the best bet for the award out of the L.A. lineup.
For Boston, Jackie Bradley Jr. took home the ALCS MVP honors. He had nine RBIs and added stellar defense. Could he continue to dominate? Will he get the chance with J.D. Martinez needing to play the outfield for the games in L.A.?
Which team will score first?
The Dodgers would be the favorites here as they get first crack. Game 1 is in Fenway given Boston’s superior record, but the Sox also have the superior—and more versatile—offense.
Boston’s outscored every team in the regular season and did the same in the postseason despite taking fewer playoff games to get to the World Series than the Dodgers.
Game 1 will feature a killer pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Chris Sale. That means the question is: who will give up runs first? Both have had some issues in postseasons past, but they’re also elite arms.
Sale’s health concerns will probably lead to an early exit. If you’re inclined to believe both have shutouts when they leave, that leaves the Sox more vulnerable and the Dodgers more likely to score first, but don’t look for shutout performances by both southpaws. In fact, don’t expect either to leave with the opponent scoreless.
Getting the first at bat gives the Dodgers an edge, but the better offense for the Sox shouldn’t be ignored. Look for Boston to score first. They can manufacture runs with the best of them and while they have plenty of power, they’re less homer dependent than the Dodgers. They’re doubles machines and play in a familiar, yet quirky, ballpark that their team is used to hitting in. Besides, Fenway’s Green Monster can be quite intimidating to southpaw hurlers who aren’t used to it, like Kershaw.
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