Once upon a time, a pitcher had to flash dominant numbers on the mound to win the National League Cy Young Award. In recent years that has not been the case. The Baseball Writers Association of American and Mets fans, but there I repeat myself, have always been enamored with Jacob deGrom. And it is deGrom that tops the board to win his third Cy Young Award. Last year’s winner, Corbin Burns of the Milwaukee Brewers, was a surprise winner. But the betting public often makes future bets based on the past. For the 2022 season, there is a multitude of quality candidates.
2022 NL Cy Young Odds to Win: Jacob deGrom (New York) +400, Walker Buehler (Los Angeles) +800, Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee) +800, Max Scherzer (New York) +800, Zach Wheeler (Philadelphia) +900, Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee) +900, Aaron Nola (Philadelphia) +1200, Max Fried (Atlanta) +1200, Logan Webb (San Francisco) +1500, Joe Musgrove (San Diego) +1800, Jack Flaherty (St. Louis) +1800, Sandy Alcantara (Miami) +2000, Blake Snell (San Diego) +2000, Charlie Morton (Atlanta) +2200, Luis Castillo (Cincinnati) +2500, Yu Darvish (San Diego) +3000, All Other Players +3500 or Higher.
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Odds Analysis
A “journalist” is a Mets fan with a by-line in the National League. Consider how Jacob deGrom won two Cy Young Awards with very good but hardly dominant numbers. Last year’s winner Corbin Burns was something of a surprise. Thus, the betting field looks wide open with a potentially strong combination of price and ability for numerous pitchers.
Repeat winners are not unusual for the NL Cy Young Award. To illustrate, repeat winners include deGrom (2019), Max Scherzer (2017), Clayton Kershaw (2014), Randy Johnson (2000, 2001, 2002), and Greg Maddux (1993, 1994, 1995).
Jacob deGrom +400
In 2018 Jacob deGrom was 10-9 with a 1.70 earned run average. His WHIP was 0.91 with 269 strikeouts in 217 innings of work. Yes, those were impressive numbers for a Mets team that went 77-85. But Cy Young worthy? And in 2019, the “writers” again voted for deGrom despite lesser numbers of 11-8 and a 2.43 earned run average with a WHIP of 0.97.
Of great concern is that deGrom saw limited action in the 2021 season. Overall, deGrom was 7-2 with a 1.08 ERA and WHIP of 0.55. He struck out 146 batters in 92 innings of work.
Certainly, the 4-time All-Star and 2-time Cy Young Award winner is a quality pitcher. And he benefits from a Mets Media propaganda machine. But his limited innings from last year give pause for cause for the possibility of fulfilling an entire campaign’s schedule.
Walker Buehler +800
Last year Walker Buehler was named to the All-MLB First Team. Additionally, Buehler is a 2-time National League All-Star. Buehler is coming off a strong 2021 campaign in which he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Buehler struck out 212 batters in 202.2 innings of work. Buehler’s Cy Young chances are enhanced by his playing for the perennial power Dodgers.
Corbin Burnes +800
Last year was quite the breakout for Corbin Burnes. To illuminate, Burnes won the NL Cy Young and was named an NL All-Star and All-MLB First Team honoree. Burnes went 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA and WHIP of 0.94. He struck out 234 batters in 167 innings of work.
Max Scherzer +900
Meet the newest Met, Max Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner for the Detroit Tigers and 2016-17 NL Cy Young awardee of the Washington Nationals. Scherzer is an 8-time All-Star. Scherzer’s arrival has added to the Mets hype. And he may offer better value than deGrom. Last year Scherzer was 15-4 with a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
2022 NL Cy Young Best Best Bet
Max Scherzer combines a name brand, quality, and a contending team.
BookMaker Pick: Max Scherzer
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