Former lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez (29-5, 16 KOs, 7 SUBs) will rematch action fighter Dustin Poirier (23-5, 11 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC on FOX 30 on Saturday, July 28, 2018 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta. The main card airs live on FOX starting 8pm ET following the FOX prelims.
It’s time to settle some unfinished business. Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier first met at UFC 211 in 2017, and the result was a No Contest due to an accidental knee to Poirier’s head while he was grounded. That really sucked as it was turning into a violent, back-and-forth scrap typical of both men.
Since then, both Alvarez and Poirier have gone on to win thrillers over Justin Gaethje, and Poirier snuck in a dominant win over Anthony Pettis for good measure. With the top of the division tied up, the matchup between the No. 3 and No. 4 ranked lightweights could determine the next title challenger - if Conor McGregor doesn’t come back and jump the line.
Title talk aside, let’s just bask in the violent impending glory of this Saturday’s main event. Alvarez currently owns the moniker of the UFC’s Most Violent Man after laying out Gaethje, although Poirier has a strong claim to it as well after doing the same. So let’s just say that this is the matchup that determines it once and for all.
Oh yeah, you want to win some money too. We got you covered - let’s check in with the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Eddie Alvarez +135
Dustin Poirier -165
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +280 / -380
Significant strikes landed p/m: Alvarez 4.44 / Poirier 5.57
Accuracy: Alvarez 41.86% / Poirier 49.93%
Significant strikes absorbed p/m: Alvarez 4.28 / Poirier 3.73
Defense: 55.87% / Poirier 55.66%
Takedown average: Alvarez 3.14 / Poirier 1.84
Takedown accuracy: Alvarez 38.46% / Poirier 41.38%
Takedowns defended: Alvarez 92.86% / Poirier 67.39%
Submission average: Alvarez 0.38 / Poirier 1.22
The first encounter gives us a good idea of what to expect. Poirier handily took the first round with sharper, faster strikes, freezing Alvarez with his forward pressure. But in the second round, both guys had moments where they smashed the other hard enough for a finishing flurry attempt.
Both guys can strike, wrestle and grapple at a high level. We’ll give a slight edge in speed and athleticism to Poirier, with a small advantage in knockout power and wrestling to Alvarez. Each of them can take a ton of punishment and recover on the fly.
It’s about as competitive a matchup as you can get, though Poirier gets the nod from the oddsmakers as a clear favorite. In fact, he’s an even bigger chalk play this time around then the first matchup, where he closed at -145. We see a few reasons for this.
First, he was getting the better of Alvarez in their last matchup, using his speed and dynamic striking arsenal before getting clipped with an out of nowhere punch. Age is also a factor here, as Poirier is 29 to Alvarez’s 36. Though Eddie has yet to show signs of physical decline, the Philly native is out of his athletic prime and has a ton of fight miles on his body.
UFC Odds Pick: Poirier to win at -165
While Eddie’s a live ‘dog, Poirier is clearly the more dynamic fighter overall. He was able to stuff Alvarez’s takedown attempts, and if Eddie can’t use his clinch/wrestling as a crutch against better strikers he tends to struggle.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision -380
It’s rare that either of these guys go to the cards. They both tend to get cracked a few times in their fights, and each man consistently dials up the violence to 100. The price is expensive, so use it as a parlay booster.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight UFC on FOX 30 takes place on Saturday, July 28, 2018 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta. The main card airs live on FOX starting 8pm ET following the FOX prelims.