Middleweight contender Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (26-6, 8 KOs, 14 SUBs) will meet the surging Jack Hermansson (19-4, 11 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 3 on Saturday, April 27, 2019 at the BB&T Center in Sunrise, Florida. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9pm ET.
Jack Hermansson’s making a quick turnaround in hopes of getting the biggest win of his career. The Swedish middleweight steps into the cage this Saturday as a replacement for Yoel Romero in a main event matchup against perennial contender Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
Fresh off a quick submission win over former WSOF David Branch this past March, Hermansson has now won three straight and owns a 6-2 UFC record overall. Notably, all three of his wins during his current run have come by finish - two subs and won TKO. And if he can somehow pull off a colossal upset here, Hermansson all of a sudden becomes a dark horse contender in a top-heavy division.
The upside is far more limited for Souza. A win over Romero would have given him a case for a title shot - something that has eluded him for years. Beating an unknown like Hermansson really doesn’t do much but earn him a paycheck and reiterate what we already know - Jacare belongs in the elite tier. But if the Brazilian somehow loses? That would be a disastrous turn of events for a 39-year old fighter.
Obviously, Souza comes in as a massive favorite in the online sportsbooks. Not only has he beaten far better competition, his opponent doesn’t have the benefit of a full training camp. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Ronaldo Souza -200
Jack Hermansson +158
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +425 / -675
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Souza 2.61 / Hermansson 4.90
Accuracy: Souza 46% / Hermansson 56%
Absorbed per minute: Souza 2.46 / Hermansson 1.77
Defense: Souza 63% / Hermansson 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Souza 3.01 / Hermansson 2.38
Takedown accuracy: Souza 41% / Hermansson 47%
Takedown defense: Souza 53% / Hermansson 73%
Submission average: Souza 1.7 / Hermansson 0.9
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Hermansson is a fun fighter who might be a lot better than we initially thought. He was signed by the UFC as one of Europe’s best middleweights, but a schooling by Cezar Ferreira in his second octagon appearance suggested that there was a clear ceiling to The Joker. However, he’s reinvented himself somewhat as an excellent ground-and-pound specialist, and his power has earned victories over mid-tier guys like Alex Nicholson, Bradley Scott and Thales Leites. The Branch win was a step up in competition as well.
But it’s fair to question whether he can even be competitive against Jacare. The Brazilian is one of the most decorated BJJ practitioners to ever cross over into MMA, and has developed a lethal punching game to boot. Though the 39-year old will never be a high-output guy, Souza’s power more than makes up for his lack of volume. Though he’s lost a step athletically and his chin is starting to show cracks, consider that Jacare’s last two wins were absolute toolings of Derek Brunson and Chris Weidman.
In this matchup, Hermansson’s best bet is to take the Whittaker/Gastelum route. In both those Jacare losses, the Brazilian was simply outquicked and outworked. Whittaker was able to piece him up with accurate boxing and shut down the wrestling, while Gastelum worked his way up from the mat every time to take control of the fight.
UFC Odds Pick: Hermansson to win at +158
This is an extremely risky pick, but we’re betting on Jacare’s quickening physical decline. Hermansson is faster and an awkward-but-effective striker, which will give the Brazilian a ton of problems. At this price, take a small chance on a big payout.
Bet on UFC on ESPN 3 odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN 3 takes place on Saturday, April 27, 2019 at the BB&T Center in Sunrise, Florida. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9pm ET.
