Philipe Lins is favored against Andrei Arlovski at UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Teixeira on Wednesday, May 13 in Jacksonville, Florida. This event is one of six fights on the ESPN+ portion of the preliminary card. Lins is 14-3 in his career, while Arlovski is 28-19. There are a total of five fights on the main ESPN card, with the headliner a bout between Anthony Smith and Glover Teixeira. There are also a total of six fights on the preliminary card, all on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Lins and Arlovski and UFC predictions.
Philipe Lins 14-3, UFC debut
Lins comes into the UFC with a record of 14-3. In his last fight fights, Lins has a record of 4-1. He defeated Josh Copeland last time out in PFL 11, winning by fourth round TKO, but it should be noted that fight took place in late December of 2018, so Lins has not fought in quite some time. He defeated Jared Rosholt by 2nd round TKO before that win, submitted Caio Alencar, knocked out Alex Nicholson and lost to Vadim Nemkov. Lins has been a pro since 2005 and he has eight wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Andrei Arlovski 28-19, 17-13 UFC
Arlovski has bounced around in various leagues, including two different stints in the UFC and his latest stay in the UFC has been since 2014. He has not had much success recently going 1-3 with one no contest in his last five fights. It is even uglier if you go back farther, as he is 3-9 with one no contest in his last 13 fights. He lost to Jairzinho Rozenstruik by 1st round knockout in November of last year, defeated Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision in July of last year, lost by split decision to Augusto Sakai in April of last year, fought to a no contest against Walt Harris in December of 2018 and lost to Shamil Abdurakhimov by unanimous decision in September of 2018. Arlovski has been a pro since 1999. He has 17 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has 12 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Arlovski 3.55 / Lins 0.00
Striking Accuracy: Arlovski 44% / Lins 0.00
Strikes absorbed per minute: Arlovski 2.69 / Lins 0.00
Defense: Arlovski 59% / Lins 0.00
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Arlovski 0.52/ Lins 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Arlovski 36% / Lins 0.00
Takedowns defended: Arlovski 79% / Lins 0.00
Submission average: Arlovski 0.3 / Lins 0.00
I have no idea why Arlovski is still in the UFC, as he has been awful in the past few years, winning just three of his last 13 bouts. This would seem to be a good matchup for Lins, but there is no doubt his level of competition up to this point hasn’t been that great. Regardless, I can’t make any case for taking Arlovski, so I will lay the small price and take Lins.
UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Teixeira takes place on Wednesday, May 13 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. There are a total of five fights on the main ESPN card, with the headliner a fight between Anthony Smith and Glover Texeira, and six preliminary bouts on ESPN+.
Main card ESPN
Light Heavyweight – Anthony Smith -177 vs. Glover Teixeira
Heavyweight – Ovince St. Preux -150 vs. Ben Rothwell
Lightweight - Drew Dober -127 vs. Alexander Hernandez
Bantamweight - Ricky Simon -180 vs. Ray Borg
Middleweight - Marvin Vettori -163 vs. Karl Roberson
Preliminary Card ESPN/ESPN+
Heavyweight – Philipe Lins -151 vs. Andrei Arlovski
Lightweight - Michael Johnson -115 vs. Thiago Moises
Women's Bantamweight - Sijara Eubanks -355 vs. Sarah Moras
Lightweight - Omar Antonio Morales -150 vs. Gabriel Benitez
Bantamweight - Hunter Azure -175 vs. Brian Kelleher
Heavyweight - Chase Sherman -150 vs. Isaac Villanueva
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