Light heavyweight contenders Thiago Santos (21-7, 15 KOs, 1 SUB) and Glover Teixeira (31-7, 18 KOs, 8 SUBs) will face off in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira on Saturday, November 7, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN starting 5pm ET. The main card also features a women’s strawweight scrap between strawweight contender Claudia Gadelha (18-4, 2 KOs, 7 SUBs) and Chinese prospect Xiaonan Yan (12-1, 5 KOs). Let’s take a closer look at the main event, break down the stats and get into the best UFC betting options at the online sportsbook.
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For the first time in a very long time, the light heavyweight division is wide open. The title is vacant, Jon Jones is moving to heavyweight, and Daniel Cormier is retired. Jan Blachowicz, of all people, holds the strap. And this Saturday’s main event between Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira will determine who fights the new champion. That’s as high as the stakes get without actual hardware on the line.
Thiago Santos (21-7, 15 KOs, 1 SUB)
Santos is fighting for the first time in over a year, and some would argue that he should actually be the champion after going aggressively at Jon Jones for five rounds. More impressively, he did it on one leg - the Brazilian tore his left ACL, MCL, PCL and meniscus early. Despite the injury, Santos still walked down the GOAT throwing nukes. It was a championship caliber performance from the knockout artist.
Prior to that, Santos was getting busy making his case as the division’s heaviest hitter. After a decent middleweight stint, the 36-year old moved up in weight and immediately notched knockouts of Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa and Blachowicz. What was most surprising is that Santos’ newfound dominance was born out of his willingness to walk his opponents down and throw bombs.
It’s good to have knockout power as a true eight-point striker. Opponents know exactly what Santos is going to do, but he’s tough to stop regardless - even Jones was tentative pulling the trigger against him. Teixeira’s chin is generally pretty solid, but he’s also been on the wrong end of a few terrible KOs.
Glover Teixeira (31-7, 18 KOs, 8 SUBs)
Teixeira carries a four-fight winning streak into the matchup, with three of those victories coming by way of finish. In his last outing, he brutalized Anthony Smith so thoroughly that it was hard to watch. Not only did the performance vault Teixiera into the top 5, the 40-year old shed the gatekeeper tag in the process. For a few years, the longtime vet was the guy that younger dudes tried to make a name off of - respected, but aging and beatable.
Though Teixeira is clearly past his athletic prime, he makes up for it with a wealth of experience. When he joined the UFC in 2012, he was a slick boxer with knockout power. Over the years, Teixeira has developed a vastly underrated wrestling game that’s helped him stay relevant. To put it simply: he can outwrestle weak grapplers and outstrike subpar kickboxers. Where he struggles is against guys with elite skills: Rumble Johnson was too explosive for him, Gustafsson was too long and technical and Corey Anderson’s wrestling was a problem.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Santos 4.44 / Teixeira 3.74
Striking accuracy: Santos 47% / Teixeira 47%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Santos 2.19 / Teixeira 3.87
Striking defense: Santos 57% / Teixeira 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Santos 0.83 / Teixeira 1.87
Takedown accuracy: Santos 40% / Teixeira 38%
Takedown defense: Santos 68% / Teixeira 60%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Santos 0.1 / Teixeira 0.9
UFC Picks
Teixiera is the more skilled fighter here. The risk is that he gets blown up by Santos, but Teixeira has never been easy to put away. The losses to Rumble and Gustaffson were terrible, but Santos isn’t like either of those guys. We’ll let Teixeira’s resume speak for itself and lay down a solid bet at this price.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira Card & Odds
Light Heavyweight - Glover Teixeira +191 vs. Thiago Santos -235
Middleweight - Ian Heinsich -112 vs. Brendan Allen -112
Women’s Strawweight - Claudia Gadelha +113 vs. Yan Xiaonan -137
Heavyweight - Andrei Arlovski +232 vs. Tanner Boser -289
Featherweight - Jeremy Stephens +154 vs. Arnold Allen -186
Middleweight - Trevin Giles -107 vs. Bevon Lewis -117
Welterweight - Ramiz Rahimaj +115 vs. Max Griffin -139
Featherweight - Eduardo Garagorri +200 vs. Darren Elkins -245
Heavyweight - Marcos Rogerio de Lima +303 vs. Alexander Romanov -390
Bantamweight - Khalid Taha +277 vs. Raoni Barcelos -352
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