Sergei Pavlovich is favored against Tai Tuivasa at UFC Fight Night: Holland vs. Thompson on Saturday, December 3 in Orlando, Florida. This event is one of 15 fights on ESPN/ESPN+. Tuivasa is 14-4 in his career, while Pavlovich is 16-1 in his career. There are a total of 15 fights, all on ESPN/ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Holland vs. Thompson. Let’s look at the bout between Tuivasa and Pavlovich and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Holland vs. Thompson takes place at the Amway Center in Las Orlando, Florida on Saturday, December 3 with 15 fights, all on ESPN/ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland Betting
Tai Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC)
Tuivasa came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has eight wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Stefan Struve by KO, Harry Hunsucker by TKO, Greg Hardy by KO, Augusto Sakai by KO, and Derrick Lewis by KO; while losing to Ciryl Gane by KO. Tuivasa has been a pro since 2012 and he has 13 wins by TKO/KO and one by decision. He has 11 first round finishes.
Sergei Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC)
Pavlovich came into the UFC with a record of 12-0 and he has four wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Marcelo Golm by KO, Maurice Greene by TKO, Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO, and Derrick Lewis by TKO; while losing to Alistair Overeem by TKO. Pavlovich has been a pro since 2014 and he has 13 wins by TKO/KO and three by decision. He has 13 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Tuivasa 4.12 /Pavlovich 6.83
Striking Accuracy: Tuivasa 50% /Pavlovich 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Tuivasa 4.24 /Pavlovich 4.44
Defense: Tuivasa 45% /Pavlovich 45%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Tuivasa 0. 00 /Pavlovich 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Tuivasa 0% /Pavlovich 0%
Takedowns defended: Tuivasa 52% /Pavlovich 66%
Submission average: Tuivasa 0.0 /Pavlovich 0.0
UFC Picks
This should be an exciting matchup for as long as it lasts. Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich are powerful heavyweights who want to move up in the division. Tuivasa had his five-fight winning streak snapped last time, as he lost to Ciryl Gane in Paris. Pavlovich has been rolling along with four straight stoppage victories. It took him just 55 seconds to beat Derrick Lewis at UFC 277. We know that Tuivasa is going to be looking to land the big shot, as when he wins, he wins by knocking out his opponents. A total of 13 of his 14 wins have come by KO/TKO and when he loses, he usually gets finished, with only one of his losses coming by decision. It is worth noting that two of his knockout losses came against fighters who have long reaches in dos Santos and Gane. Pavlovich has a reach of 84 inches and that is longer than either dos Santos or Gane.
This fight really comes down to whether or not Pavlovich can keep Tuivasa from landing his big strike. If he does, then Pavlovich is going to win this fight and probably win it by knockout. The way to beat Pavlovich has been to mix things up and try to get the fight to the ground. That is not the strength of Tuivasa. I don’t think there is much doubt that Pavlovich is the better fighter. The question is whether or not you want to lay 2-1 on him. The rounds option would be the way to go, but we are definitely not getting much help from the oddsmakers, as they have made the rounds for this fight at 1.5 and attached a hefty price on the under. I still can’t see this fight making it out of the second round, so taking the under is still the way I would go. Looking at props for the fight to end in the first round and for Pavlovich to win by knockout are also worth considering.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 12/03 |
Kevin Holland |
-155 |
| Stephen Thompson |
+124 |
| 12/03 |
Tai Tuivasa |
+165 |
| Sergei Pavlovich |
-210 |
| 12/03 |
Bryan Barberena |
+379 |
| Rafael Dos Anjos |
-550 |
| 12/03 |
Matt Schnell |
+277 |
| Matheus Nicolau |
-375 |
| 12/03 |
Eryk Anders |
+172 |
| Kyle Daukaus |
-220 |
| 12/03 |
Philip Rowe |
+110 |
| Niko Price |
-140 |
| 12/03 |
Angela Hill |
-105 |
| Emily Ducote |
-125 |
| 12/03 |
Scott Holtzman |
-150 |
| Clay Guida |
+120 |
| 12/03 |
Michael Johnson |
+221 |
| Marc Diakiese |
-290 |
| 12/03 |
Darren Elkins |
+322 |
| Jonathan Pearce |
-450 |
| 12/03 |
Tracy Cortez |
-115 |
| Amanda Ribas |
-115 |
| 12/03 |
Genaro Valdez |
+150 |
| Natan Levy |
-190 |
| 12/03 |
Marcelo Rojo |
+127 |
| Francis Marshall |
-160 |
| 12/03 |
Istela Nunes |
+228 |
| Yazmin Jauregui |
-300 |
| 12/03 |
Roman Dolidze |
+146 |
| Jack Hermansson |
-185 |
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