Curtis Blaydes is favored against Sergei Pavlovich at UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes on Saturday, April 22 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 12 fights on ESPN+. Pavlovich is 17-1 in his career, including 5-1 in the UFC, while Blaydes is 17-3 in his career, including 12-3 in the UFC. There are a total of 12 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes. Let’s look at the bout between Pavlovich and Blaydes and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, April 22 with 12 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Betting
Sergei Pavlovich (17-1, 5-1 UFC)
Pavlovich came into the UFC with a record of 12-0 and he has five wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Marcelo Golm by KO, Maurice Greene by TKO, Shamil Abdurakhimov by TKO, Derrick Lewis by TKO, and Tai Tuivasa by KO; while losing to Alistair Overeem by TKO in November of 2018. Pavlovich has been a pro since 2014 and he has 14 wins by TKO/KO and three by decision. He has 14 first round finishes.
Curtis Blaydes (17-3, 12-3 UFC)
Blaydes came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has 12 wins and three losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Junior dos Santos by TKO, Alexander Volkov by unanimous decision, Jairzinho Rozenstruik by unanimous decision, Chris Daukaus by TKO, and Tom Aspinall by TKO; while losing to Derrick Lewis by KO in February of 2021. Blaydes has been a pro since 2014 and he has 12 wins by TKO/KO and five by decision. He has three first round finishes.
Strikes landed per minute: Pavlovich 8.07 /Blaydes 3.54
Striking Accuracy: Pavlovich 51% /Blaydes 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Pavlovich 4.30/Blaydes 1.70
Defense: Pavlovich 48% /Blaydes 59%
Takedown average: Pavlovich 0.00 /Blaydes 6.05
Takedown Accuracy: Pavlovich 0% /Blaydes 53%
Takedowns defended: Pavlovich 66% /Blaydes 33%
Submission average: Pavlovich 0.0 /Blaydes 0.0
The main event on Saturday night is a good one, as Pavlovich has won his last five fights, while Blaydes has won three straight and eight of nine. The two fighters are ranked No. 3 and No. 4 in the heavyweight division so this should be a very competitive fight.
The winner could eventually be in line for a title shot against Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic. Pavlovich looked good coming off a layoff, as he beat Shamil Abdurakhimov, and then dominated Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. Blaydes got a bounce back win against Jairzinho Rozenstruik in September of 2021 and then dominated Chris Daukaus and Tom Aspinall.
This matchup between Pavlovich and Blaydes could be a matchup of different styles, but only if Blaydes is smart. Pavlovich is a knockout artist, while Blaydes can win by striking or on the mat. Blaydes has good takedown stats and Pavlovich has never really been tested with his takedown defense. Blaydes has good wrestling skills and might be the best wrestler in the division, so he should be looking to get this fight on the mat.
I am really surprised at the price on this fight, as I think it could go either way and if I was to give someone an edge, I would probably go with Pavlovich. Oddsmakers don’t agree, as they have made Blaydes a -180 favorite in UFC betting odds. I just don’t see Blaydes being listed as almost a 2-1 favorite, so I will take the plus price of +143 on Pavlovich. If Blaydes does get the win, then I think the fight has to go past the first round, so I will hedge a bit and also play the rounds to go over the rounds total of 1.5.
|DATE ||FIGHTERS ||MONEY LINE |
|4/22 ||Sergei Pavlovich ||+143 |
|Curtis Blaydes ||-180 |
|4/22 ||Bruno Silva ||+131 |
|Brad Tavares ||-165 |
|4/22 ||Jared Gordon ||+197 |
|Bobby Green ||-255 |
|4/22 ||Brogan Walker ||+251 |
|Iasmin Lucindo ||-335 |
|4/22 ||Matthew Semelsberger ||-115 |
|Jeremiah Wells ||-115 |
|4/22 ||Christos Giagos ||+135 |
|Ricky Glenn ||-170 |
|4/22 ||Rani Yahya ||+379 |
|Montel Jackson ||-550 |
|4/22 ||Norma Dumont ||-115 |
|Karol Rosa ||-115 |
|4/22 ||Junior Tafa ||-110 |
|Mohammed Usman ||-120 |
|4/22 ||William Gomis ||+161 |
|Francis Marshall ||-205 |
|4/22 ||Priscila Cachoeira ||+154 |
|Karine Silva ||-195 |
|4/22 ||Brady Hiestand ||+105 |
|Batgerel Danaa ||-135 |
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