Robert Whittaker is favored against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum on Saturday, April 17 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Whittaker comes into this fight with a record of 22-5, while Gastelum is 16-6. There are a total of six fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum, with the headliner a bout between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card on ESPN. Let's look at the bout between Whittaker and Gastelum and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Betting
Robert Whittaker (22-5, 13-3 UFC)
Whittaker came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and he is 13-3 in the UFC. Whittaker is coming off a unanimous decision win against Jared Cannonier in October of last year. Whittaker previously beat Darren Till by unanimous decision in July of last year, was knocked out by Israel Adesanya in October of 2019, winning a split decision against Yoel Romero in June of 2018 and winning a unanimous decision against Romero in July of 2017. Whittaker has been a pro since 2009 and he has 9 wins by knockout and 5 by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Kelvin Gastelum (16-6, 11-6 UFC)
Gastelum came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has gone 11-6 in the UFC. Gastelum is 2-3 in his last five fights. He is coming off a unanimous decision against Ian Heinisch in February. He previously lost by submission to Jack Hermansson in July of last year, lost a split decision to Darren Till in November of 2019, lost a unanimous decision to Israel Adesanya in April of 2019 and won a split decision against Ronaldo Souza in May of 2018. Gastelum has been a pro since 2010. He has 6 wins by TKO/KO and 4 by submission. He has 5 first round finishes.
Strikes landed per minute: Whittaker 4.52/ Gastelum 3.64
Striking Accuracy: Whittaker 40% / Gastelum 43%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Whittaker 3.44 / Gastelum 2.92
Defense: Whittaker 60% / Gastelum 59%
Takedown average: Whittaker 0.43 / Gastelum 1.22
Takedown Accuracy: Whittaker 27% / Gastelum 39%
Takedowns defended: Whittaker 84% / Gastelum 64%
Submission average: Whittaker 0.0 / Gastelum 0.1
Whittaker is more than a 2-1 favorite over Gastelum and it is hard to argue with the price. Whittaker is simply the better overall fighter. I think Gastelum might have a chance if he could get this fight to the ground, but I don't think he can and I am not even sure he will try. Gastelum is going to have a hard time winning a striking battle and it is hard to envision any other type of fight. I think Whittaker will get the win, but I am not thrilled about laying more than 2-1. Neither of these two fighters has much finishing power, so the better bet may be to simply take the fight to go over the rounds total.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Card & Odds
Middleweight: Kelvin Gastelum +207 vs. Robert Whittaker -255
Middleweight: Bartosz Fabinski -132 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +108
Heavyweight: Juan Espino +103 vs. Alexander Romanov -127
Lightweight: Drakkar Klose +103 vs. Jeremy Stephens -127
Women's Flyweight: Justine Kish +200 vs. Tracy Cortez -245
Lightweight: Luis Peña -142 vs. Alexander Munoz +118
Bantamweight: Tony Gravely -342 vs. Anthony Birchak +270
Women's Strawweight: Jessica Penne +238 vs. Lupita Godinez -298
Featherweight: Bill Algeo -122 vs. Ricardo Ramos -102
Middleweight: Jacob Malkoun +228 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -284
Women's Bantamweight: Zarah Fairn Dos Santos +108 vs. Josiane Nunes -132
Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski -137 vs. Chase Sherman +113
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