Phil Hawes is heavily favored against Deron Winn at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez on Saturday, October 9 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 11 fights on ESPN+. Hawes comes into this fight with a record of 11-2, while Winn is 7-2 in his career. There are a total of 11 fights, all of which can be seen on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez. Let’s look at the bout between Hawes and Winn and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, October 9 with all 11 fights on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez Betting
Phil Hawes (11-2, 3-0 UFC)
Hawes came into the UFC with a record of 8-2 and he has three wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Jacob Malkoun by KO, Nassourdine Imavov by majority decision, and Kyle Daukaus by unanimous decision. Hawes’ last loss in his career was against Julian Marquez by KO on August 1, 2017. Hawes has been a pro since 2014 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has seven first round finishes.
Deron Winn (7-2, 2-2 UFC)
Winn came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has two wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Eric Spicely by unanimous decision and Antônio Arroyo by unanimous decision; while losing to Darren Stewart by split decision and Gerald Meerschaert by rear-naked choke submission. Winn has been a pro since 2017 and he has four wins by TKO/KO. He has four first round finishes.
Strikes landed per minute: Hawes 3.44 / Winn 4.74
Striking Accuracy: Hawes 58% / Winn 47%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Hawes 3.29 / Winn 5.17
Defense: Hawes 52% / Winn 50%
Takedown average: Hawes 2.70 / Winn 4.98
Takedown Accuracy: Hawes 38% / Winn 52%
Takedowns defended: Hawes 100% / Winn 0%
Submission average: Hawes 0.4 / Winn 0.0
It comes as no surprise that Hawes is listed as the favorite, but I don’t like laying 3-1 very often and I don’t know that I trust Hawes enough at this big price. Hawes has looked good with a record of 11-2 and 3-0 in the UFC. Hawes hasn’t done anything wrong with wins over Malkoun, Imavov and Daukaus, but is he really a fighter who is worth the 3-1 price?
Winn is 7-2 in his career, but he is just 2-2 in the UFC. He is also just 5’5” and he immediately has a height disadvantage against everyone he faces. He did well against Eric Spicely in his debut and he won fight of the night honors, but he didn’t look as good in defeats to Stewart and Meerschaert. Winn was suspended after the fight with Meerschaert for a positive drug test and he was out for nine months. He came back and beat Arroyo in December of last year.
Winn will be looking to get this fight to the ground and it may be that Hawes lets that happen. Both fighters have good wrestling skills so it would not surprise me if this one ends in a submission. I think the props are the best way to go in this matchup and see if we can get some good hedging options. We can get plus money on Hawes to win by submission at odds of about 8-1 and we get big plus money of about 16-1 on Winn to get the victory by submission. We can then hedge a bit and simply take the rounds to go over at basically even money.
We’ll hope for one of the two to win this fight by submission, but if that doesn’t happen, we’ll have a hedge on the fight going the distance.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez Card & Odds
|DATE ||FIGHTERS ||MONEY LINE |
|10/09 ||Marina Rodriguez ||+139 |
|Mackenzie Dern ||-175 |
|10/09 ||Jared Vanderaa ||+392 |
|Alexander Romanov ||-575 |
|10/09 ||Sam Hughes ||+168 |
|Lupita Godinez ||-215 |
|10/09 ||Jamie Pickett ||+179 |
|Laureano Staropoli ||-230 |
|10/09 ||Felipe Colares ||+204 |
|Chris Gutierrez ||-265 |
|10/09 ||Sabina Mazo ||-175 |
|Mariya Agapova ||+139 |
|10/09 ||Deron Winn ||+238 |
|Phil Hawes ||-315 |
|10/09 ||Matheus Nicolau Pereira ||-200 |
|Tim Elliott ||+158 |
|10/09 ||Charlie Ontiveros ||+241 |
|Steve Garcia ||-320 |
|10/09 ||Charles Rosa ||+147 |
|Damon Jackson ||-186 |
|10/09 ||Jared Gooden ||+186 |
|Randy Brown ||-240 |
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