Mariya Agapova is heavily favored against Shana Dobson at UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar on Saturday, August 22 in Las Vegas Nevada. This event is one of seven fights on the preliminary card on ESPN/ESPN+. Agapova is 9-1 in her career including 1-0 in the UFC, while Dobson is 3-4 in her career, including 1-3 in the UFC. There are a total of four fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar, with the headliner a bout between Pedro Munhoz and Frankie Edgar. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card on ESPN/ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Agapova and Dobson and UFC picks.
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Mariya Agapova (9-1, 1-0 UFC)
Agapova came into the UFC with a record of 8-1 and she has one win and no losses in the UFC. She defeated Hannah Cifers by rear-naked choke submission. Agapova’s only loss in her career was against Tracy Cortez by unanimous decision on July 30, 2019. Agapova has been a pro since 2015 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. She has six first round finishes.
Shana Dobson (3-4, 1-3 UFC)
Dobson came into the UFC with a record of 2-1 and she has one win and three losses in the UFC. She defeated Ariel Beck by TKO; while losing to Lauren Mueller by unanimous decision, Sabina Mazo by unanimous decision, and Priscila Cachoeira by KO. Dobson has been a pro since 2016 and she has one win by TKO.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Agapova 3.84/ Dobson 3.63
Striking Accuracy: Agapova 51% / Dobson 34%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Agapova 4.35/ Dobson 5.42
Defense: Agapova 51% / Dobson 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Agapova 0.00/ Dobson 0.39
Takedown Accuracy: Agapova 0% / Dobson 25%
Takedowns defended: Agapova 42% / Dobson 0%
Submission average: Agapova 0.8/ Dobson 0.0
UFC Picks
This fight looks like a complete mismatch based on the odds, with Agapova listed as more than a 10-1 favorite and there is no reason to think she won’t win. That being said, I am not laying 10-1 on anyone, despite the obvious mismatch. Dobson has just one win in her last four fights and there is no reason to think she can handle Agapova, but you can forget about me laying the huge price. Since I am not laying the price and I see no reason to back Dobson; that means looking at the rounds. Agapova has finished seven of her nine wins, with six of those coming in the first round and two of Dobson’s four UFC fights ended in a finish. The rounds on this fight look like they are going to be posted at 1.5 with the under a slight favorite in terms of the betting odds. I will lay the small price and take this fight to go under the rounds total.
UFC Fight Night Edgar vs. Munhoz Card & Odds
Bantamweight- Frankie Edgar +212 vs. Pedro Munhoz -265
Women’s Flyweight- Shana Dobson +650 vs. Mariya Agapova -1062
Women’s Strawweight- Amanda Lemos +110 vs. Mizuki Inoue -135
Welterweight- Takashi Sato +154 vs. Daniel Rodriguez -186
Light Heavyweight- Marcin Parchnio +196 vs. Mike Rodriguez -240
Lightweight- Austin Hubbard -123 vs. Joe Solecki -147
Featherweight- Mark Striegl +390 vs. Timur Valiev -523
Light Heavyweight - Ovince Saint Preux +108 vs. Alonzo Menifield -132
Welterweight- Carlton Minus -131 vs. Matthew Semelsberger +107
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