UFC Fight Night - Julian Marquez vs. Saparbek Safarov Odds

UFC Fight Night Julian Marquez vs. Saparbek Safarov

Julian Marquez is heavily favored against Saparbek Safarov at UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos on Saturday, November 14 in Las Vegas Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main card on ESPN+. Marquez is 7-2 in his career, while Safarov is 9-3 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main card on UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos, with the headliner a bout between Paul Felder and Rafael dos Anjos. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Marquez and Safarov and UFC picks.

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Julian Marquez (7-2, 1-1 UFC)

Marquez came into the UFC with a record of 6-1 and he has one win and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Darren Stewart by guillotine choke submission; while losing to Alessio Di Chirico by split decision. Marquez has been a pro since 2014 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has four first round finishes.

Marquez said this to mmajunkie.usatoday.com about his upcoming fight, I’ve been waiting for this moment for the past 28 months, and we were going to have it 25 months in, but we had to push it off. My body is like a (expletive) Greek god right now. I feel amazing, I feel just energetic and I’m ready for Nov. 14. I can’t wait to display what I’ve been working on during my time off, during the time I was doing surgeries and everything, all the stuff I was able to build while not being able to use one arm, so I’m excited.”

Saparbek Safarov (9-3, 1-3 UFC)

Safarov came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has one win and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Nicolae Negumereanu by unanimous decision; while losing to Gian Villante by TKO, Tyson Pedro by kimura submission, and Rodolfo Vieira by arm-triangle choke submission. Safarov has been a pro since 2010 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has seven first round finishes.

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Marquez 3.80/ Safarov 4.03

Striking Accuracy: Marquez 40% / Safarov 48%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Marquez 3.33/ Safarov 2.96

Defense: Marquez 53% / Safarov 47%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Marquez 0.00/ Safarov 2.52

Takedown Accuracy: Marquez 0% / Safarov 41%

Takedowns defended: Marquez 52% / Safarov 33%

Submission average: Marquez 3.0/ Safarov 0.0

UFC Picks

I understand why Marquez is favored, but I can’t lay 3-1 on a fighter coming back from a layoff of more than two years. I also can’t take Safarov, as he has just one win in his last four fights. What I will take is the rounds to go under the total. It is hard to see how Marquez will have great cardio having been off for so long and all seven of his wins have been finishes. Safarov has nine wins and eight of his wins have been finishes. I’ll go under the rounds total in this one.

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos Card & Odds

Lightweight - Paul Felder +162 vs. Rafael Dos Anjos -196

Welterweight - Khaos Williams +191 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -235

Bantamweight - Jose Alberto Quinonez +103 vs. Louis Smolka -127

Women’s Strawweight - Cory McKenna +184 vs. Kay Hansen -225

Women’s Strawweight - Ashley Yoder +108 vs. Miranda Granger -132

Middleweight - Saparbek Safarov +228 vs. Julian Marquez -284

Middleweight - Antonio Arroyo +134 vs. Eryk Anders -162

Heavyweight - Roque Martinez +191 vs. Don’Tale Mayes -235

Welterweight - Rhys McKee +158 vs. Alex Morono -191

Bantamweight - Geraldo de Freitas +138 vs. Tony Gravely -166

Women's Strawweight - Randa Markos +154 vs. Kanako Murata -186

Catchweight - Sean Strickland -109 vs. Brendan Allen -115

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