Shamil Gaziev is a slight UFC betting favorite against Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev on Saturday, March 2 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 12 fights on ESPN+. Rozenstruik is 13-5 in his career, including 7-5 in the UFC, while Gaziev is 12-0 in his career, including 1-0 in the UFC. There are a total of 12 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev. Let’s look at the bout between Rozenstruik and Gaziev and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev takes place at the UFC Apex in Mexico Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 2 with 12 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Betting
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC)
Rozenstruik came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has seven wins and five losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has two wins and four losses. He defeated Augusto Sakai by TKO and Chris Daukaus by KO; while losing to Ciryl Gane by unanimous decision, Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision, Alexander Volkov by TKO, and Jailton Almeida by rear-naked choke submission. Rozenstruik has been a pro since 2012 and he has 12 wins by TKO/KO and one by decision. He has nine first round finishes.
Shamil Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC)
Gaziev came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has one win and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Martin Buday by TKO in December of last year. Gaziev has been a pro since 2020 and he has eight wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has eight first round finishes.
Gaziev said this to ufc.com about his upcoming fight against Rozenstruik, “He looks tough. How tough, we will know on March 2nd. It will show my level. When you beat strong guys (that are) not ranked, you still don’t get that credit, but now I have a good chance to show my level to the MMA world.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Rozenstruik 2.81 /Gaziev 6.19
Striking Accuracy: Rozenstruik 45% /Gaziev 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Rozenstruik 3.15/Gaziev 0.93
Defense: Rozenstruik 45% /Gaziev 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Rozenstruik 0.00/Gaziev 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Rozenstruik 0%/Gaziev 0%
Takedowns defended: Rozenstruik 73%/Gaziev 100%
Submission average: Rozenstruik 0.0/Gaziev 1.8
UFC Picks
Rozenstruik has faced some good competition in his career, but he hasn’t proven he can beat many good fighters. He is definitely not in good form, as he has lost five of his last eight fights, including three of his last four. In his last fight, he lost by rear naked choke submission to Jailton Almedia. Gaziev is unbeaten in his career, but we really don’t know how good he is. In his most recent fight, he won by knockout over Martin Buday in December. There is no question that Gaziev is big and has power, but he also is slow and leaves himself open to big shots from good strikers.
Rozenstruik is definitely a good striker and he is capable of landing big shots. The weakness for Rozenstruik has been his ground game, as he gets stuck on the mat and can’t recover. Gaziev has shown no ability to get fights to the mat, so it seems unlikely that Rozenstruik’s big weakness will be exposed in this fight.
Gaziev is listed as a slight UFC betting favorite in this fight. I don’t know that he should be favored, but the price on Rozenstruik isn’t enough to tempt me to take the underdog. I think the rounds are the best choice in this fight. There is little doubt that this fight will be a striking battle for as long as it lasts and there should be a lot of big shots landed. The rounds option is listed at 1.5 at BookMaker with the under at -180. It would be a major surprise if this fight goes very long, so I think taking the under 1.5 rounds is the best option in this fight.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 03/02 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | +130 |
| Shamil Gaziev | -163 |
| 03/02 | Tyson Pedro | +238 |
| Vitor Petrino | -315 |
| 03/02 | Alex Perez | +270 |
| Muhammad Mokaev | -365 |
| 03/02 | Jamie Pickett | +345 |
| Eryk Anders | -490 |
| 03/02 | Bekzat Almakhan | +675 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | -1250 |
| 03/02 | Matt Schnell | +292 |
| Steve Erceg | -400 |
| 03/02 | Aiemann Zahabi | +545 |
| Javid Basharat | -900 |
| 03/02 | Christian Leroy Duncan | -320 |
| Claudio Ribeiro | +241 |
| 03/02 | Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | -185 |
| Loik Radzhabov | +146 |
| 03/02 | AJ Cunningham | +524 |
| Ludovit Klein | -850 |
| 03/02 | Benardo Sopaj | +100 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | -130 |
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