Former bantamweight champion Holly Holm (13-5, 8 KOs) will meet rising contender Irene Aldana (12-5, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana this Saturday ,October 3, 2020 at the UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The co-main event of night features a women’s flyweight matchup between former champion Germaine de Randamie (9-4, 4 KOs) and Julianna Pena (9-3, 3 KOs, 3 SUBs). The card airs live on ESPN starting 10:30pm ET. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu have been hovering near pick’em odds, with Holm and Aldana showing money lines right around -115. Let’s break down this extremely competitive matchup and get into your best betting options.
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Holly Holm (13-5, 8 KOs)
There is no denying that Holm is one of the biggest women stars in the UFC. In fact, we’d argue that her drawing power has gotten her into more title fights than she deserves. It’s how she got a shot at the vacant featherweight title despite two straight losses, and how she got a second bantamweight title shot after on the strength of a win over Megan Anderson.
We’re not trashing Holmes - she is still a very good fighter despite being somewhat past her prime. But at 38 years old, The Preacher’s Daughter is only going to slow down, her power is going to wane and her chin is going to diminish - especially since she was recently knocked out for the first time by Nunes.
We’re not sure how much is at stake for Holm this Saturday. For starters, losing to Aldana would pretty much cement her status as a gatekeeper for the foreseeable future. No shame in that, but a far cry from the contender she used to be. Then again, beating Aldana would give her two straight wins...but nowhere to go either. We don’t see her getting another title shot as long as Nunes is holding the belt, so a win would be about staying relevant.
Irene Aldana (12-5, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs)
Mexico’s Aldana has been a pleasant surprise for the UFC. Actually, her whole career has been filled with pleasant surprises. She first got into mixed martial arts because she signed up for kickboxing classes in college. Those classes happened to take place in a fight gym, and she just fell into training - and happened to be pretty good at this MMA thing.
One thing to really like about Aldana: she is big for the division at 5’9”, and she has a solid frame at 135 pounds. Obviously, that means the 32-year old is very difficult to muscle around, and her strikes have some pop. A very good boxer with decent grappling, there really isn’t anywhere Aldana isn’t comfortable. However, a lack of athleticism probably gives her a hard ceiling, but one gets the sense she hasn’t reached it yet. We don’t see a championship contender in her just yet, but if she can steal some of Holm’s fame and take the win, Aldana would only be a win or two away from the title conversation. Yes, it’s a really shallow division.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Holm 2.75 / Aldana 6.16
Striking accuracy: Holm 35% / Aldana 38%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Holm 2.80 / Aldana 5.92
Striking defense: Holm 57% / Aldana 63%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Holm 0.5 / Aldana 0.28
Takedown accuracy: Holm 27% / Aldana 50%
Takedown defense: Holm 76% / Aldana 93%
Submission average: Holm 0.1 / Aldana 0.1
UFC Picks
This is a copout pick, we know. It’s not cheap either. But it’s absolutely the safest pick, and pretty much a guaranteed payout, so at least use it as a parlay booster. While both women have been knocked out before, neither really has enough stopping power to lean on. As for picking a winner...flip a coin.
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana Card & Odds
Women’s Bantamweight - Irene Aldana -107 vs. Holly Holm -117
Women’s Bantamweight - Germaine de Randamie -137 vs. Julianna Pena +113
Welterweight - Court McGee -132 vs. Carlos Condit +108
Women’s Strawweight - Jinh Yu Frey +114 vs. Loma Lookboonmee -138
Heavyweight - Carlos Felipe +209 vs. Yorgan de Castro -256
Bantamweight - Heili Alateng +246 vs. Casey Kenney -308
Featherweight - Josh Culibao +335 vs. Charles Jourdain -439
Lightweight - Jessin Ayari -117 vs. Luigi Vendramini -107
Middleweight - Nassourdine Imavov +123 vs. Jordan Williams -147
Middleweight - Dequan Townsend +243 vs. Dusko Todorovic -303
Middleweight - KB Bhullar +225 vs. Tom Breese -279
Bantamweight - Cameron Else +335 vs. Kyler Phillips -439
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