Anthony Hernandez is favored against Edmen Shahbazyan at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill on Saturday, May 20 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 14 fights on ESPN+. Shahbazyan is 12-3 in his career, including 5-3 in the UFC, while Hernandez is 10-2 in his career, including 4-2 in the UFC. There are a total of 14 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill. Let’s look at the bout between Shahbazyan and Hernandez, UFC betting statistics for the fight and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, May 20 with 14 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Betting
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-3, 5-3 UFC)
Shahbazyan came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and he has five wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Darren Stewart by split decision, Charles Byrd by TKO, Jack Marshman by rear-naked choke submission, Brad Tavares by KO, and Dalcha Lungiambula by TKO; while losing to Derek Brunson by TKO, Jack Hermansson by unanimous decision, and Nassourdine Imavov by TKO. Shahbazyan has been a pro since 2017 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has 10 first round finishes.
Anthony Hernandez (10-2, 4-2 UFC)
Hernandez came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has four wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Jun Yong Park by anaconda choke submission, Rodolfo Vieira by guillotine choke submission, Josh Fremd by unanimous decision, and Marc-André Barriault by technical submission; while losing to Markus Perez by anaconda choke submission and Kevin Holland by TKO. Hernandez has been a pro since 2014 and he has one win by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Shahbazyan 3.59 /Hernandez 4.03
Striking Accuracy: Shahbazyan 50% /Hernandez 59%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Shahbazyan 3.87/Hernandez 3.50
Defense: Shahbazyan 46% /Hernandez 47%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Shahbazyan 2.31 /Hernandez 6.49
Takedown Accuracy: Shahbazyan 37% /Hernandez 64%
Takedowns defended: Shahbazyan 65% /Hernandez 66%
Submission average: Shahbazyan 0.5 /Hernandez 2.4
UFC Picks
Shahbazyan got a big win last time out, as he broke a three-fight losing streak by defeating Dalcha Lungiambula at UFC 282 in December. This is a huge fight for Shahbazyan to show he can build upon that win. Hernandez lost two of his first three fights in the UFC, but he has since won his last three. He beat Rodolfo Vieira last year, and this year he has wins over Marc-Andre Barriault and Josh Fremd.
This is a definite contrast in styles, as Shahbazyan would like to keep the fight standing, while Hernandez wants to get the fight to the mat. I think we’ll see a bit of both styles in this fight, as Shahbazyan has decent, but not great takedown defense, while Hernandez is very successful in his takedown accuracy.
The UFC odds on this fight are intriguing to me, as Hernandez is listed as more than a 2-1 favorite. I definitely lean toward Hernandez but there is no way he should be listed at a big price. If Shahbazyan can keep this fight standing, he has a chance to win this fight. The rounds on this fight also surprise me, as UFC oddsmakers have the rounds listed at 1.5. I know that both of these fighters are capable of finishes, but it doesn’t take much for a fight to go past the halfway mark in the second round. While I think there is some value on taking Shahbazyan at the plus price, I think the better choice is to play the rounds to go over the total. Perhaps one of these two will find a way to get a finish, but I don’t think it will come in the first round, so I will go over the rounds total.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 5/20 | Angela Hill | +143 |
| Mackenzie Dern | -180 |
| 5/20 | Edmen Shahbazyan | +190 |
| Anthony Hernandez | -245 |
| 5/20 | Emily Ducote | +120 |
| Loopy Godinez | -150 |
| 5/20 | Andre Fialho | +176 |
| Joaquin Buckley | -225 |
| 5/20 | Viacheslav Borshchev | -170 |
| Maheshate | +135 |
| 5/20 | Diego Ferreira | -158 |
| Michael Johnson | +126 |
| 5/20 | Vanessa Demopoulos | +105 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | -135 |
| 5/20 | Gilbert Urbina | -110 |
| Orion Cosce | -120 |
| 5/20 | Ilir Latifi | +150 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | -190 |
| 5/20 | Nick Fiore | -135 |
| Chase Hooper | +105 |
| 5/20 | Victoria Leonardo | +566 |
| Natalia Silva | -950 |
| 5/20 | Takashi Sato | -115 |
| Themba Gorimbo | -115 |
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