Welterweight veteran Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (36-15, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs) will meet a dynamic finisher in Niko Price (14-4, 10 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Covington on Saturday, September 19, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features a contender matchup between heated rivals Colby Covington (15-2, 2 KOs, 5 SUBs) and Tyron Woodley (19-5, 7 KOs, 5 SUBs). Let’s take a look at Cerrone vs. Price and break down your best betting options at the online sportsbook.
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Donald Cerrone (36-15, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs)
Cowboy has had some tough stretches in his career, but none as bad as his current four-fight slide. Let’s not write him off just yet: those losses came against El Cucuy, Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor and Anthony Pettis. Those are some serious killers, and his last fight against Pettis could have gone either way. It was scary watching Cowboy get shredded by guys like Ferguson, but the three-rounder against Pettis showed that he can still hang with upper echelon dudes.
At 37 years old, after 15 years as a pro fighter, it’s impossible to ignore that Cowboy is closing in on the end of an amazingly productive career. It’s likely that he’ll never get back to the title mix, but Cerrone still has a lot to offer. He can still spank guys trying to make a name off him - just ask young Alex Hernandez. And no matter what, Cowboy fights are a lot of fun. We all know how good of a kickboxer he is, but he’s also an excellent submission grappler with more submissions than KOs.
Cerrone holds the record for most UFC appearances - you don’t get that many fights without being pretty damn good. He’s comfortable wherever it goes, but the caveat here is that he’s no longer elite in any area. An awesome striker will light him up or a strong wrestler will steamroll him. Declines across the board - especially in durability - have added up to produce a very vulnerable Cowboy.
Niko Price (14-4, 10 KOs, 3 SUBs)
The Hybrid is one of the more intriguing talents at welterweight. He’s got the tools to hang with anyone and the power to knock out everyone. What’s missing is a consistent fighting identity. That’s kept him from putting together a streak that carried him into title contention. For every memorable finish, he’s been stopped - leading to alternating wins and losses for six straight fights. He knocked out Randy Brown with hammerfists off his back (something that we’d never seen), and iced James Vick with an upkick of all things.
Price’s losses haven’t come against the biggest names, but Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque are top 15 guys. There’s no shame in losing to them, but they’re not true players in the division either. We see flashes of top 10 potential in Price, but he’s got to evolve beyond getting into the wild kill-or-be-killed slugfests - he doesn’t have the iron chin for it. But even if he never improves, Price has earned his rep as an exciting fighter that can finish from anywhere.
This is a dangerous fight for The Hybrid. It’s absolutely one he should win, as Price is the type of fast, explosive athlete that Cowboy struggles with. But this is a winnable fight for Cowboy, who has the skills to frustrate Price on the feet or ground.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Price 4.32 / Cerrone 4.33
Striking accuracy: Price 38% / Cerrone 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Price 5.46 / Cerrone 4.27
Striking defense: Price 49% / Cerrone 53%
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Price 1.08 / Cerrone 1.23
Takedown accuracy: Price 23% / Cerrone 35%
Takedown defense: Price 61% / Cerrone 73%
Submission average: Price 1.1 / Cerrone 1.2
This is a really tricky fight. All signs point to Price taking the win, but the price doesn’t justify a bet. Plus, the chances for Cowboy to turn back the clock and exploit Price’s weaknesses are much better than the odds would suggest. At the end of the day, we feel the safest bet is that this fight ends in a finish. Price has only gone the distance once in 18 pro fights, and Cerrone has been stopped in three of his past four.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley Card & Odds
Welterweight: Tyron Woodley +283 vs. Colby Covington -361
Welterweight: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone +131 vs. Niko Price -158
Light Heavyweight: Ryan Spann +103 vs. Johnny Walker -127
Women’s Strawweight: Randa Markos +131 vs. Mackenzie Dern -158
Middleweight: Darren Stewart +210 vs. Kevin Holland -259
Women’s Flyweight: Mara Romero Borella +200 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva -245
Flyweight: Jordan Espinosa -112 vs. David Dvorak -112
Bantamweight: Randy Costa +118 vs. Journey Neson -142
Bantamweight: Irwin Rivera +170 vs. Andre Ewell -206
Bantamweight: Sarah Alpar +181 vs. Jessy-Rose Clark -220
Featherweight: Darrick Minner +221 vs. TJ Laramie -274
Flyweight: Jerome Rivera +136 vs. Tyson Nam -165
Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert +350 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -463
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