Welterweight contender Colby Covington (15-2, 2 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet hated rival Tyron Woodley (19-5, 7 KOs, 5 SUBs) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Covington on Saturday, September 19, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on ESPN starting 8pm ET. Also scheduled is a welterweight action fight between Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (36-15, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs) and finisher Niko “The Hybrid” Price (14-4, 10 KOs, 3 SUBs). Today, we’re taking a closer look at the main event and breaking down your best online betting options. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Covington as a huge -325 favorite, with Woodley at +243 on the comeback.
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Colby Covington (15-2, 2 KOs, 5 SUBs)
The last time Covington stepped inside the octagon, he came up short in a title bid against rival Kamaru Usman - and got his jaw broken in the process. Though “Chaos” took the L, the thrilling fight was an instant classic, easily one of the best championship matchups in UFC history. Love or hate him, Covington proved himself one of the best in a loaded 170-pound class. Just in case you forgot, the 32-year old won nine straight to put himself in that position, dominating the likes of Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler in the process.
Though Covington and Woodley have never fought, they’ve sparred plenty through social and MMA media. At one point, everything lined up for them to scrap while Woodley held the title, but minor injuries derailed those plans and Usman ended up becoming the champ. This is a scrap that’s long overdue, and it’s still an intriguing bout with genuine bad blood. We won’t blame you if you tune out all the pre-fight trash talk - and definitely avoid the comments section of MMA articles for this one.
It’s easy to see why Covington is such a massive favorite: his relentless offense is a terrible matchup for the former champ. Based on what we’ve seen from these guys recently, the expectation here is that Colby completely smothers Woodley under a waterfall of offense.
Tyron Woodley (19-5, 7 KOs, 5 SUBs)
Normally, losing two straight fights isn’t reason enough to sound the alarm bells. But Woodley’s two-fight slide is anything but normal. The 38-year old didn’t just lose belt against Usman, he was battered for 5 straight rounds, putting up minimal resistance. Then, the exact same thing happened against Gilbert Burns in his last outing this past May. That’s 50 straight minutes of getting beat up without really throwing anything back.
What’s going on with Woodley? Just as recently as 2018, he was dominating Darren Till for his fourth straight title defense. People were discussing him as an all-timer. Now, the talk has shifted to whether his time as an elite welterweight is done. He’s certainly at an age where fighters are known to decline. Woodley is a fighter whose success depends on explosiveness - and that’s normally the first thing that Father Time takes away.
If T-Wood has anything at all left, he should be able to dig it out against a guy who has antagonized him for years. If he fights against type and takes away Colby’s rhythm, he’s got a chance to pull this off. I could keep going with the ifs, but he’s a big underdog because there’s so many of them.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Covington 3.9 / Woodley 2.44
Striking accuracy: Covington 37% / Woodley 47%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Covington 2.35 / Woodley 3.87
Striking defense: Covington 56% / Woodley 56%
Takedowns landed per 15 minutes: Covington 5.69 / Woodley 0.39
Takedown accuracy: Covington 51% / Woodley 33%
Takedown defense: Covington 78% / Woodley 90%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Covington 0.2 / Woodley 0.23
Like we said early, there are too many “ifs” that you have to bet on to back Woodley. The only chance he pulls this off is if he lands one of his vintage overhand rights, but Colby was able to fight through a broken freakin’ jaw. Covington to win straight up is expensive, but it’s your safest bet. The decision prop is solid too, as Covington is not a knockout artist and Woodley proved he can last under heavy fire. Naturally, that makes the Covington by decision victory prop a solid bet with a decent payout.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley Card & Odds
Welterweight: Tyron Woodley +283 vs. Colby Covington -361
Welterweight: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone +131 vs. Niko Price -158
Light Heavyweight: Ryan Spann +103 vs. Johnny Walker -127
Women’s Strawweight: Randa Markos +131 vs. Mackenzie Dern -158
Middleweight: Darren Stewart +210 vs. Kevin Holland -259
Women’s Flyweight: Mara Romero Borella +200 vs. Mayra Bueno Silva -245
Flyweight: Jordan Espinosa -112 vs. David Dvorak -112
Bantamweight: Randy Costa +118 vs. Journey Neson -142
Bantamweight: Irwin Rivera +170 vs. Andre Ewell -206
Bantamweight: Sarah Alpar +181 vs. Jessy-Rose Clark -220
Featherweight: Darrick Minner +221 vs. TJ Laramie -274
Flyweight: Jerome Rivera +136 vs. Tyson Nam -165
Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert +350 vs. Khamzat Chimaev -463
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