Mark O. Madsen is favored against Clay Guida at UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum on Saturday, August 21 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main card on ESPN2/ESPN+. Guida is 36-20 in his career, while Madsen is 10-0 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main card on ESPN2/ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum and seven preliminary bouts on ESPN2/ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Guida and Madsen and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum takes place at UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, August 21 with five fights on the main card on ESPN2/ESPN+ and seven preliminary bouts also on ESPN2/ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Betting
Clay Guida (36-20, 16-14 UFC)
Guida came into the UFC with a record of 20-6 and he has 16 wins and 14 losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has three wins and three losses. He defeated Joe Lauzon by TKO, B.J. Penn by unanimous decision, and Michael Johnson by unanimous decision; while losing to Charles Oliveira by guillotine choke submission, Jim Miller by technical submission, and Bobby Green by unanimous decision. Guida has been a pro since 2003 and he has seven wins by TKO/KO and 13 by submission. He has 13 first round finishes.
Mark O. Madsen (10-0, 2-0 UFC)
Madsen came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has two wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Danilo Belluardo by TKO and Austin Hubbard by unanimous decision. Madsen has been a pro since 2013 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has six first round finishes.
Strikes landed per minute: Guida 2.44 / Madsen 2.28
Striking Accuracy: Guida 34% / Madsen 42%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Guida 2.57 / Madsen 2.53
Defense: Guida 63% / Madsen 46%
Takedown average: Guida 3.36 / Madsen 8.33
Takedown Accuracy: Guida 38% / Madsen 64%
Takedowns defended: Guida 68% / Madsen 0%
Submission average: Guida 0.7 / Madsen 0.0
Guida has a lot of experience in the UFC, but it is hard to get too excited about betting on him. Guida is 39-years old and we pretty much know what we are going to get with him. He is a tough fighter but one whose skills have started to slip. He still can beat below average fighters, but he is not going to win that often against good fighters. The problem we have in this fight is that we really don’t know how good Madsen is. He has fought just twice in the UFC and neither of his opponents were anything special.
Madsen is listed as almost a 2-1 favorite in this fight and I am not willing to lay that type of price on a fighter with just two UFC wins. We know that Madsen will want to get this fight to the mat, but can he find a way to submit a tough fighter in Guida? Perhaps Madsen is good enough to get the win, but I think the price is too high.
The rounds option on this fight is 2.5 with the over listed at -220. I lean toward taking the over, as I think both of these fighters will be cautious as they look for a submission. I don’t know that this fight will end in a submission, but I am not thrilled about laying more than 2-1 on anything, especially a rounds prop. Perhaps we’ll get some submission props for this fight leading up to Saturday. Those could be worth looking at if we get big plus money. This could also be a good fight to watch and wager on the live betting odds. We should know fairly quickly how this fight will go.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Card & Odds
Middleweight - Kelvin Gastelum +124 vs. Jared Cannonier -155
Flyweight - Brandon Royval +143 vs. Alexandre Pantoja -180
Bantamweight - Domingo Pilarte +139 vs. Brian Kelleher -175
Light Heavyweight - Fabio Cherant +150 vs. William Knight -190
Heavyweight - Parker Porter +161 vs. Chase Sherman -205
Lightweight - Austin Hubbard -115 vs. Vinc Pichel -115
Featherweight - Austin Lingo +105 vs. Luis Saldana -135
Lightweight - Clay Guida +135 vs. Mark O. Madsen -170
Welterweight - Ramiz Brahimaj -130 vs. Sasha Palatnikov +100
Women's Bantamweight - Josiane Nunes +124 vs. Bea Malecki -155
Lightweight - Roosevelt Roberts -150 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +120
Middleweight - Antonio Braga Neto +105 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -135
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