Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman (14-5, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet Dagestan's Omari Akhmedov (20-4, 7 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik on August 8, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The matchup serves as the co-main event and is headlined by a heavyweight banger between knockout Artist Derrick Lewis (23-8) and submission specialist Alexei Oleinik (59-13-1). Catch the action live on ESPN starting at 9pm ET. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu currently show a pick'em, with both Weidman and Akhmedov at -115. Let's break down the fighters, dive into the stats and get into the best bets at the UFC online sportsbook.
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Chris Weidman (14-5, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs)
It's been an ugly few years for Chris Weidman. In 2015, he was 13-0 and held the middleweight belt. Then came a loss to Luke Rockhold, where he was knocked out in the fourth round of a close fight. That KO seems to have irreparably damaged his chin: all of his five career losses have been the result of being hammered into oblivion. He's also only one once in his past six fights, and that includes a foray into light heavyweight in his last outing.
The silver lining here is that Weidman has only been facing championship level fighters for the past 5 years - so it's easy to justify those defeats. Nobody should be surprised when a fighter gets waylaid by somebody like Yoel Romero, Jacare Souza or Dominick Reyes. Of course, it's also a clear sign that Weidman no longer has the chin to hang with the top contenders. The question here is whether he can stay relevant against strong mid-tier middleweights.
Akhmedov isn't an easy fight, but it's a winnable one. This is the first time in a long time that Weidman isn't facing a highly ranked opponent, so we'll find out if he has what it takes to be a gatekeeper at 185 pounds.
Omari Akhmedov (20-4, 7 KOs, 5 SUBs)
Akhmedov had a rocky start to his UFC career, going 2-3 in his first five. In hindsight, a UFC debut against Gunnar Nelson was a tough task, and losses to Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos don't look that bad as both went on to have their own mini-runs. Since then, Akhmedov has settled in nicely, going unbeaten in six straight fights with wins over solid fighters like Tim Boetsch, Zak Cummings and Ian Heinisch. His reward? A prove it fight against the biggest name opponent of his career.
The Russian is an easy watch: he throws hard shots at 100% and dials up the aggression right out of the starting blocks. That's worked against him as Akhmedov had a bad habit of gassing early, but he's gotten much better at saving his gas tank in recent years. Coming out of Dagestan, Akhmedov is predictably a strong offensive wrestler, but he struggles defensively against good takedown artists. Weidman might be vulnerable, but everybody recognizes that he's a stellar takedown artist. That's what makes this fight so interesting.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Weidman 3.14 / Akhmedov 2.99
Striking accuracy: Weidman 42% / Akhmedov 34%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Weidman 3.25 / Akhmedov 2.77
Striking defense: Weidman 51% / Akhmedov 58%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Weidman 3.82 / Akhmedov 2.40
Takedown accuracy: Weidman 50% / Akhmedov 50%
Takedown defense: Weidman 73% / Akhmedov 62%
Submission average: Weidman 1.0 / Akhmedov 0.2
UFC Picks
We simply do not have faith in a 36-year old fighter with zero chin. It's as simple as that. While Weidman has all the skills to compete, he doesn't have the durability anymore - and this is a sport where you get punched in the face. Akhmedov is younger and has far more tread on his tires, and he's a great value at -115.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik Card & Odds
Heavyweight - Aleksei Oleinik +176 vs. Derrick Lewis -214
Middleweight - Omari Akhmedov +104 vs. Chris Weidman -128
Lightweight - Scott Holtzman +134 vs. Beneil Dariush -162
Middleweight - Andrew Sanchez +134 vs. Wellington Turman -162
Lightweight - Alex Munoz +205 vs. Nasrat Haqparast -251
Welterweight - Tim Means +113 vs. Laureano Strapoli -137
Featherweight - Justin Jaynes +123 vs. Gavin Tucker -147
Featherweight - Peter Barret +327 vs. Youssef Zalal -425
Women Bantamweight - Julija Stoliarenko +194 vs. Yana Kunitskaya -238
Bantamweight - Ali Al Qaisi +162 vs. Irwin Rivera -196
Middleweight - Maki Pitolo +150 vs. Darren Stewart -181
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