Brendan Allen is heavily favored against Paul Craig at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig on Saturday, November 18 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of 15 fights on ESPN+. Allen is 22-5 in his career, while Craig is 17-6-1 in his career. There are a total of 15 fights, all on ESPN+ at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig. Let’s look at the bout between Allen and Craig and UFC predictions.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, November 18 with 15 fights, all on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Betting
Brendan Allen (22-5, 10-2 UFC)
Allen came into the UFC with a record of 12-3 and he has 10 wins and two losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has five wins and one loss. He defeated Sam Alvey by rear-naked choke submission, Jacob Malkoun by unanimous decision, Krzysztof Jotko by rear-naked choke submission, André Muniz by rear-naked choke submission, and Bruno Silva by rear-naked choke submission; while losing to Chris Curtis by TKO. Allen has been a pro since 2015 and he has five wins by TKO/KO and 13 by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Paul Craig (17-6-1, 9-6-1 UFC)
Craig came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has nine wins, six losses, and one draw in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has four wins and two losses. He defeated Maurício Rua by TKO, Jamahal Hill by TKO, Nikita Krylov by triangle choke submission, and André Muniz by TKO; while losing to Volkan Oezdemir by unanimous decision and Johnny Walker by TKO. Craig has been a pro since 2013 and he has four wins by TKO/KO and 13 by submission. He has 11 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Allen 3.96 /Craig 2.57
Striking Accuracy: Allen 53% /Craig 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Allen 3.89/Craig 2.85
Defense: Allen 46% /Craig 46%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Allen 1.22/Craig 1.91
Takedown Accuracy: Allen 42%/Craig 23%
Takedowns defended: Allen 55%/Craig 42%
Submission average: Allen 1.6/Craig 1.7
UFC Picks
Brendan Allen is definitely an exciting fighter to watch, as evidenced by his Performance of the Night bonuses in two of his last three fights. He is a highly skilled grappler who has won each of his past three bouts by submission. Allen also lands a considerable number of punches and kicks, averaging 3.96 significant strokes per minute. His most recent opponent was Bruno Silva, who he consistently pounded on. When it comes to his KO/TKO victories, Allen has five, the most recent being against Tom Breese in 2020. Paul Craig has gotten us all used to seeing him pull off some pretty wild upsets. Over the course of his 10+ years in the UFC, we've seen him knock off some pretty big names including Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill and Nikita Krylov. The Scottish fighter has proven to be an entertaining presence in the octagon, having earned eight Performance of the Night bonuses during his UFC tenure. The most recent of these was his TKO victory over Andre Muniz.
Allen should win this fight, but I don’t lay big prices and I am not laying the 4-1 price in UFC odds on this fight. The rounds are listed at 1.5 and I understand the low number considering Allen is a high-energy fighter. If the round number wasn’t so low, I would take the under, but as was evidenced last week, it doesn’t take much for a fight to go over 1.5 rounds.
I think the best choice in this fight it to look at the props. Allen should win this fight and he will likely win it by submission and at least we get a little value on that prop. If you want to take a flyer on Craig then betting him to win by submission would give you a big payout. I prefer, however, to simply take Allen to win by submission.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 11/18 |
Paul Craig |
+316 |
| Brendan Allen |
-440 |
| 11/18 |
Jake Matthews |
+228 |
| Michael Morales |
-300 |
| 11/18 |
Jordan Leavitt |
+176 |
| Chase Hooper |
-225 |
| 11/18 |
Nick Aguirre |
+545 |
| Payton Talbott |
-900 |
| 11/18 |
Luana Pinheiro |
+190 |
| Amanda Ribas |
-245 |
| 11/18 |
Jonny Parsons |
+190 |
| Uros Medic |
-245 |
| 11/18 |
Jonathan Pearce |
-135 |
| Joanderson Brito |
+105 |
| 11/18 |
Chad Anheliger |
+150 |
| Jose Johnson |
-190 |
| 11/18 |
Caio Machado |
+257 |
| Mick Parkin |
-345 |
| 11/18 |
Ailin Perez |
-185 |
| Lucie Pudilova |
+146 |
| 11/18 |
Trey Ogden |
+103 |
| Nikolas Motta |
-133 |
| 11/18 |
Charles Johnson |
+115 |
| Rafael Estevam |
-145 |
| 11/18 |
Jeka Saragih |
+351 |
| Lucas Alexander |
-500 |
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