Heavyweight contenders Alistair Overeem (44-17, 22 KOs, 17 SUBs) and Aleksei Oleinik (57-11, 8 KOs, 45 SUBs) will meet at UFC on ESPN+ 7 on Saturday, April 20 at the Yubileyny Sports Complex in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Aleksei Oleinik is getting a huge opportunity on short notice. Replacing Alexander Volkov on just a few week’s notice, the Russian now steps in to headline a card in his native country - against one of the most respected heavyweights in the business. One of the most dangerous submission artists in the division, the 41 year old “Boa Constrictor” comes into the fight with back-to-back wins over Junior Albini and Mark Hunt.
Though Overeem is likely nearing the end of an illustrious career, he’s still one of the most dangerous men in the division. And just when it looked like he was about to be demoted to the mid-tier wasteland, The Reem authored a sensational first-round KO of prospect Sergei Pavlovich this past November. In a thin division, the 38-year old is still somebody to beat.
The winner won’t receive a title shot next, but his name stays at the top of a short list of worthy contenders. Of course, there’s a lot of uncertainty at the top with Cormier shuffling his feet, but in a vacuum this should be an entertaining - if short - fight.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best online betting options. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds during the fight, just in case you want to hedge any of your previous plays.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem
Aleksei Oleinik
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision:
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Oleinik 3.06 / Overeem 3.7
Accuracy: Oleinik 48% / Overeem 73%
Absorbed per minute: Oleinik 3.28 / Overeem 4.79
Defense: Oleinik 53% / Overeem 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Oleinik 2.99 / Overeem 0.5
Takedown accuracy: Oleinik 39% / Overeem 30%
Takedown defense: Oleinik 3.28 / Overeem 73%
Submission average: Oleinik 53% / Overeem 0.38
Bet on this fight at BookMaker.eu
Overeem goes from fighting a 6’7” long-range sniper to a 6’2” submission specialist. On paper, it’s a far easier matchup for The Reem - especially since Oleinik isn’t even getting a full training camp.
For starters, the Dutchman thrives against smaller guys he can bully around. While Oleinik is no shrimp, he’ll be noticeably smaller than his opponent. Though the Russian is actually a solid striker, there’s no question that Overeem has him soundly outclassed on the feet - this is a former K-1 and Golden Glory champ we’re talking about after all.
There is a clear blueprint to beating Overeem: pressure the hell out of him and crack his chin. With so many miles on his body, his durability and recovery are pretty much shot. Oleinik might find some success here, as he’s generally an aggressive fighter who can force the fight into a phone booth. And while he’s not a knockout striker, he is a heavyweight who can hit with power.
UFC Odds Pick: Overeem to win at
It’s hard to see how Oleinik takes this. The Russian is most dangerous when he vice grips his opponent and finds a choke. Overeem is simply too strong to overpower, and his submission defense is excellent - in over 60 pro fights he’s only tapped out once. The hedge play here would be to bet Oleinik to win by submission, which has a hefty payout and is Oleinik’s best chance at winning.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN+ 7 takes place on Saturday, April 20 at the Yubileyny Sports Complex in St. Petersburg, Russia.
