No. 8 welterweight Neil Magny (21-6, 7 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet No. 10 Santiago Ponzinibbio (26-3, 14 KOs, 6 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 140 on Saturday, November 17, 2018 at the Parque Roca Arena in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10pm ET.
The UFC is coming to Argentina for the first time, and the country’s best fighter is carrying the torch. Santiago Ponzinibbio will look to enter the contender ranks at home against Neil Magny, a battle-tested top-10 fighter at 170 pounds. The matchup headlines this Saturday’s Fight Night in Buenos Aires.
Ponzinibbio comes into the contest on a six-fight win streak which has steadily carried him up the rankings. His last two wins were impressive, as he knocked out Gunnar Nelson in one round and soundly outstruck a knockout artist in Mike Perry. But in Magny, the Argentine gets a different type of challenge: a tall, lanky fighter who is dangerous in multiple areas.
Magny has quietly been one of the division’s better fighters, with wins over Carlos Condit, Johny Hendricks, Hector Lombard and Kelvin Gastelum. In his past 10 fights, the 31-year old has only lost to Demian Maia, Lorenz Larkin and Rafael dos Anjos. Although Magny is somewhat of a gatekeeper at this point, he’s clearly a guy you have to beat to be considered a legit title contender.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu lean heavy on Ponzinibbio as the favorite, which gives you a big opportunity on Magny. We’re breaking down the matchup and giving you our best pick on the headliner. As a reminder, live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu also lets you hedge your bets.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Neil Magny +241
Santiago Ponzinibbio -305
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +200 / -260
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Magny 3.84 / Ponzinibbio 4.23
Accuracy: Magny 48.69% / Ponzinibbio 38.87%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Magny 2.04 / Ponzinibbio 4.01
Defense: Magny 56.95% / Ponzinibbio 62.88%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Magny 2.83 / Ponzinibbio 0.64
Takedown accuracy: Magny 47.67% / Ponzinibbio 44.44%
Takedowns defended: Magny 60.27% / Ponzinibbio 57.69%
Submission average: Magny 0.35 / Ponzinibbio 0
Bet on Magny vs. Ponzinibbio Odds at BookMaker.eu
I’ll admit that I was surprised by the opening odds here: Magny as a +250 ‘dog seems like an oversight. This is a fighter who is still in his prime, whose faced a higher level of competition in the UFC. I’m not saying he should be the favorite here, but the current price is almost disrespectful.
Magny is not overpowering in any one area, but he has plenty of unique tools in his kit. At 6’3”, he’s three inches taller than “Gente Boa”, and his long-range striking can cause problems. As a wrestler, Magny’s takedowns are excellent, but his narrow frame doesn’t allow him much of a top control game. His best weapons are actually his cardio and pace, as Magny is perpetually throwing combinations or attempting a takedown. And if he does get popped, he’s got stellar recoverability.
If this stays standing, Ponzinibbio should have a clear advantage. He’s proven himself a strong, dynamic kickboxer that both pressures and counters well. Ponzinibbio has also shown a good gas tank, landing over four strikes a minute - though he eats just as many as he gives. Considering that Magny doesn’t respond well to pressure, this is a matchup that favors Magny.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision -260
While we’re tempted to play Magny based on the price, the safer play here is the rounds over or the decision prop. Magny’s chin could survive a nuclear blast, and he’s got the IQ to try and clinch his way out of bad spots. This is a fight that’ll go deep.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 140 takes place on Saturday, November 17, 2018 at the Parque Roca Arena in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 10pm ET.
