UFC 286: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Odds

Rafael Fiziev is favored against Justin Gaethje at UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 on Saturday, March 18 in London, England. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Gaethje is 23-4 in his career, while Fiziev is 12-1 in his career. There are a total of 15 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ ESPN+, and six on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3. Let’s look at the bout between Gaethje and Fiziev and UFC predictions.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 takes place at The O2 Arena in London, England on Saturday, March 18 with 15 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ ESPN+, and six on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman III Betting

Justin Gaethje (23-4, 6-4 UFC)

Gaethje came into the UFC with a record of 17-0 and he has six wins and four losses in the UFC. He defeated Michael Johnson by TKO, James Vick by KO, Edson Barboza by KO, Donald Cerrone by TKO, Tony Ferguson by TKO, and Michael Chandler by unanimous decision; while losing to Eddie Alvarez by KO, Dustin Poirier by TKO, Khabib Nurmagomedov by technical submission, and Charles Oliveira by rear-naked choke submission. Gaethje has been a pro since 2011 and he has 19 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has nine first round finishes.

Rafael Fiziev (12-1, 6-1 UFC)

Fiziev came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has six wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Alex White by unanimous decision, Marc Diakiese by unanimous decision, Renato Moicano by KO, Bobby Green by unanimous decision, Brad Riddell by KO, and Rafael dos Anjos by KO; while losing to Magomed Mustafaev by TKO in April of 2019. Fiziev has been a pro since 2015 and he has eight wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has six first round finishes.

Fiziev said this to lowkickmma.com about his upcoming fight against Gaethje, “(Fighting Justin Gaethje is) crazy to me. I can’t believe (it). When I go into the cage with Justin, when I see him in front of me in the cage, its still (going to be) like ‘wow! He (has a) very good style…he fights with heart and everybody who fights with heart has a big plus and big minus. Big minus because he fights only with heart. Big plus, you can’t break him because he fights with his heart. It’s very hard to break his mind, break his heart but if you have a good IQ…you can beat him, easily. I want to play with him…I want to show him (a) masterpiece…the real highlight. I want to show him.”

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Gaethje 7.46 / Fiziev 4.81

Striking Accuracy: Gaethje 60% / Fiziev 50%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Gaethje 7.85 / Fiziev 4.86

Defense: Gaethje 55% / Fiziev 50%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Gaethje 0.00 / Fiziev 0.36

Takedown Accuracy: Gaethje 0% / Fiziev 40%

Takedowns defended: Gaethje 75% / Fiziev 92%

Submission average: Gaethje 0.0 / Fiziev 0.0

UFC Picks

This fight should be full of fireworks, as both of these two fighters are high-energy, high-intensity fighters. Gaethje is going to go all out right from the start and Fiziev isn’t going to back down. Gaethje doesn’t always fight smart, but he is such a tough brawler that oftentimes it doesn’t matter. Fiziev is capable of trading shots with Gaethje, but he has to be careful about not getting worn out early.

I am a little surprise that Fiziev is more than a 2-1 favorite in UFC betting odds, so there could be a little value on Gaethje as the underdog. The rounds are listed at 1.5 with the over at -180. Even though both of these fighters have knockout power, they are also extremely tough and I think a quick finish is unlikely. I think the best bet in this fight is to go over the rounds total.

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman III Card & Odds

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