Carla Esparza is favored against Michelle Waterson at UFC 249 on Saturday, May 9 in Jacksonville, Florida. This event is one of four fights on the ESPN portion of the preliminary card. Esparza is 15-6 in her career, while Waterson is 17-7 in her career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 249, with the headliner a bout between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card, with four on ESPN and three on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Esparza and Waterson and UFC predictions.
Carla Esparza 15-6, 6-4 UFC
Esparza came into the UFC with a record of 9-2 and she has six wins and four losses in the UFC. She defeated Rose Namajunas by rear-naked choke submission, Juliana Lima by unanimous decision, Maryna Moroz by unanimous decision, Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision, Virna Jandiroba by unanimous decision, and Alexa Grasso by majority decision; while losing to Joanna Jedrzejczyk by TKO, Randa Markos by split decision, Cláudia Gadelha by split decision, and Tatiana Suarez by TKO. Esparza has been a pro since 2010 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and four by submission. She has three first round finishes.
Michelle Waterson 17-7, 5-3 UFC
Waterson came into the UFC with a record of 12-4 and she has five wins and three losses in the UFC. She defeated Angela Magaña by rear-naked choke submission, Paige VanZant by technical submission, Cortney Casey by split decision, Felice Herrig by unanimous decision, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz by unanimous decision; while losing to Rose Namajunas by rear-naked choke submission, Tecia Torres by unanimous decision, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision. Waterson has been a pro since 2007 and she has three wins by TKO/KO and nine by submission. She has eight first round finishes.
Waterson said this to bjpenn.com about her upcoming fight against Esparza, “Her bread and butter are her wrestling but I have really good statistics with my wrestling and jiu-jitsu. If it hits the ground I’m 100 percent comfortable there. The majority of my wins are by submission. So, people who fight me have to think twice about going to the ground. Carla has worked a lot on her kickboxing and I think she’ll stand and bang with me for a while. What’s going to happen is she’s going to get frustrated and try and take me down which will get stuffed. She’ll shoot at desperation and fall into a submission or get knocked out.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Esparza 2.22/ Waterson 3.35
Striking Accuracy: Esparza 40% / Waterson 53%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Esparza 2.86/ Waterson 3.88
Defense: Esparza 53% / Waterson 48%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Esparza 3.53/ Waterson 1.88
Takedown Accuracy: Esparza 36% / Waterson 50%
Takedowns defended: Esparza 48% / Waterson 57%
Submission average: Esparza 0.3 / Waterson 1.2
This looks to be a very even fight between two fighters with similar records. I know that fighters like to talk a lot of smack, but I like what Waterson had to say about how she said this fight will go. I also like the fact that we are getting plus money on Waterson in a fight that looks even. I will take Waterson to get the win.
UFC 249 takes place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida on Saturday, May 9, with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje and seven preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN and three on ESPN+.
Main Card Pay-Per-View
Lightweight - Tony Ferguson -177 vs. Justin Gaethje
Bantamweight - Henry Cejudo -235 vs. Dominick Cruz
Heavyweight - Greg Hardy -210 vs. Yorgan de Castro
Heavyweight - Francis Ngannou -270 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Featherweight - Calvin Kattar -255 vs. Jeremy Stephens
Preliminary Card ESPN
Welterweight - Anthony Pettis -145 vs. Donald Cerrone
Heavyweight - Fabrício Werdum -325 vs. Alexey Oleynik
Women's Strawweight - Carla Esparza -160 vs. Michelle Waterson
Middleweight - Ronaldo Souza-130 vs. Uriah Hall
Preliminary Card ESPN+
Welterweight - Vicente Luque -300 vs. Niko Price
Featherweight - Bryce Mitchell -168 vs. Charles Rosa
Light Heavyweight - Ryan Spann -415 vs. Sam Alvey
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