Fabricio Werdum is heavily favored against Aleksei Oleinik at UFC 249 on Saturday, May 9 in Jacksonville, Florida. This event is one of four fights on the ESPN portion of the preliminary card. Werdum is 23-8-1 in his career, while Oleinik is 58-13-1 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 249, with the headliner a bout between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card, with four on ESPN and three on ESPN+. Let’s look at the bout between Werdum and Oleinik and UFC picks.
Fabricio Werdum 23-8-1, 11-5 UFC
Werdum came into the UFC with a record of 9-2-1 and he has 11 wins and five losses in the UFC. In his last five fights, he has three wins and two losses. He defeated Travis Browne by unanimous decision, Walt Harris by armbar submission, and Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision; while losing to Alistair Overeem by majority decision and Alexander Volkov by KO. Werdum has been a pro since 2002 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and 11 by submission. He has 10 first round finishes.
Werdum said this to bloodyelbow.com about his upcoming fight, “I was going to fight at UFC 250, in Brazil. I know lots of people were looking at that date because UFC 249 got cancelled, but now it’s back on. They chose me and I was very happy. Although I’m on the prelims, I don’t really care about that. I’d like to be on the main card, but being able to fight again after two years because a contamination I was unable to prove, it just makes me want to fight. It doesn’t matter where. If it’s the first of the night, I’m happy, because I’ll fight and then leave. I’m happy to be on the card, it’s pretty important, there will only be great fights.
Aleksei Oleinik 58-13-1, 7-4 UFC
Oleinik came into the UFC with a record of 51-9-1 and he has seven wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last five fights, he has three wins and two losses. He defeated Júnior Albini by Ezekiel choke submission, Mark Hunt by rear-naked choke submission, and Maurice Greene by armbar submission; while losing to Alistair Overeem by TKO and Walt Harris by KO. Oleinik has been a pro since 1996 and he has eight wins by TKO/KO and 46 by submission. He has 46 first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Werdum 3.61/ Oleinik 3.08
Striking Accuracy: Werdum 51% / Oleinik 50%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Werdum 2.45/ Oleinik 3.25
Defense: Werdum 56% / Oleinik 49%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Werdum 1.65/ Oleinik 3.01
Takedown Accuracy: Werdum 30% / Oleinik 46%
Takedowns defended: Werdum 31% / Oleinik 20%
Submission average: Werdum 1.1 / Oleinik 2.8
Werdum is heavily favored in this fight and he very well may get the win, but I am really leery about laying 3-1 on a fighter who has not fought in more than two years. I can’t make much of a case for Oleinik, but I am definitely not taking Werdum at this price. I can’t see either of these two being in great shape, so I will simply take the rounds to go under the total.
UFC 249 takes place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida on Saturday, May 9, with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje and seven preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN and three on ESPN+.
Main Card Pay-Per-View
Lightweight - Tony Ferguson -177 vs. Justin Gaethje
Bantamweight - Henry Cejudo -235 vs. Dominick Cruz
Heavyweight - Greg Hardy -210 vs. Yorgan de Castro
Heavyweight - Francis Ngannou -270 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Featherweight - Calvin Kattar -255 vs. Jeremy Stephens
Preliminary Card ESPN
Welterweight - Anthony Pettis -145 vs. Donald Cerrone
Heavyweight - Fabrício Werdum -325 vs. Alexey Oleynik
Women's Strawweight - Carla Esparza -160 vs. Michelle Waterson
Middleweight - Ronaldo Souza-130 vs. Uriah Hall
Preliminary Card ESPN+
Welterweight - Vicente Luque -300 vs. Niko Price
Featherweight - Bryce Mitchell -168 vs. Charles Rosa
Light Heavyweight - Ryan Spann -415 vs. Sam Alvey
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