Greg Hardy is favored against Yorgan de Castro at UFC 249 on Saturday, April 18 at a private island that UFC president Dana White has yet to name. This fight is one of five fights on the pay-per-view main card. Hardy is 5-2 in his career, while de Castro is 6-0 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main card at UFC 249, with the headliner a bout between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card, with four on ESPN and three on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Hardy and de Castro and UFC picks.
Greg Hardy (5-2, 2-2 UFC)
Hardy came into the UFC with a record of 3-0 and he has two wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Dmitry Smolyakov by TKO and Juan Adams by TKO; while losing to Allen Crowder by disqualification and Alexander Volkov by unanimous decision. Hardy has been a pro since 2018 and he has five wins by TKO/KO. He has five first round finishes.
Yorgan de Castro (6-0, 1-0 UFC)
De Castro came into the UFC with a record of 5-0 and he has one win and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Justin Tafa by KO on October 5, 2019. De Castro has been a pro since 2017 and he has five wins by TKO/KO. He has four first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Hardy 4.77 / De Castro 3.58
Striking Accuracy: Hardy 49% / De Castro 53%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Hardy 3.21/ De Castro 1.40
Defense: Hardy 56% / De Castro 43%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Hardy 0.00/ De Castro 0.00
Takedown Accuracy: Hardy 0% / De Castro 0%
Takedowns defended: Hardy 83% / De Castro 75%
Submission average: Hardy 0.0 / De Castro 0.0
UFC Picks
It is definitely a surprise that this fight is on the main card instead of the bout between Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. De Castro is unbeaten but relatively untested, while Hardy has been up and down in the UFC. I really don’t understand why Hardy is almost a 2-1 favorite. There is no question he has power, but he still doesn’t know how to fight. The value is definitely on de Castro in this fight, but the better choice may be to play the rounds. Hardy knows only one thing and that is to go fast and hard and hope for the best. Sometimes he gets in a big shot and wins, while other times he gets caught. I think taking this fight to go under the rounds total is the best bet. I’ll take de Castro to win by knockout and the rounds to go under the total.
UFC 249 takes place at TBA on Saturday, April 18, with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje and seven preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN and three on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card
(Pay-Per-View)
Lightweight - Tony Ferguson -175 vs. Justin Gaethje
Women's Strawweight - Rose Namajunas -207 vs. Jessica Andrade
Heavyweight - Greg Hardy -175 vs. Yorgan de Castro
Welterweight - Vicente Luque -210 vs. Niko Price
Featherweight - Calvin Kattar -260 vs. Jeremy Stephens
Preliminary Card (ESPN)
Heavyweight - Francis Ngannou -280 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Middleweight - Ronaldo Souza -145 vs. Uriah Hall
Lightweight - Alexander Hernandez -251 vs. Omar Antonio Morales Ferrer
Bantamweight - Ray Borg -145 vs. Marlon Vera
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight - Michael Johnson -252 vs. Khama Worthy
Women’s Bantamweight - Sijara Eubanks -320 vs. Sarah Moras
Light Heavyweight - Ryan Spann -280 vs. Sam Alvey
How to Bet
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