Surging welterweight contender Jorge Masvidal (34-13, 15 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet Stockton’s Nate Diaz (20-11, 5 KOs, 11 SUBs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, November 2, 2019 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs live on pay-per-view at 7pm ET.
The BMF title is up for grabs this Saturday, and yes, there really is a UFC belt for “Baddest Motherfu*ker” in the promotion. It was spoken into existence by West Coast Gangster Nate Diaz, who called out Down South Gangster Jorge Masvidal after a win over Anthony Pettis. The fans went nuts, Dana White saw dollar signs, the matchup got booked, and next thing you know a belt was actually forged.
Though it all feels a bit gimmicky, it’s kinda cool at the same time. Especially since any hope that this would turn into a glorified street beef quickly vanished when it became clear that these two respect the hell out of each other. As the saying goes, game recognize game.
The timing couldn’t be better: Masivdal’s popularity has surged recently. Not just because of that iconic knockout of Ben Askren. His backstage scrap with Leon Edwards was one of the most keeping it real moments ever caught by UFC cameras. The “three-piece and the soda” line cemented his place in the one-liner hall of fame. His interviews have become endlessly quotable. After nearly 20 years in the fight game, “Gamebred’s” star has never shined brighter.
Now, he’s matched up with one of the UFC’s true superstars. Nate Diaz has always been a cult hero, but since a pair of fights with Conor McGregor, he’s a dude that gets booked on Jimmy Kimmel live. Calling out Masvidal was a genius move: he gets a big fight, and could also vault into contender status by beating the No. 3 fighter in the division.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available to make bets during the fight with real-time line updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jorge Masvidal -185
Nate Diaz +148
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -155 / +115
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Masvidal 4.11 / Diaz 4.64
Striking accuracy: Masvidal 48% / Diaz 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Masvidal 4.15 / Diaz 3.69
Striking defense: Masvidal 67% / Diaz 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Masvidal 1.16 / Diaz 1.17
Takedown accuracy: Masvidal 51% / Diaz 30%
Takedown defense: Masvidal 77% / Diaz 45%
Submission average: Masvidal 0.51 / Diaz 1.43
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Nate Diaz’s biggest strengths are his cardio and his chin. After that, it’s his ability to get inside his opponent’s head. This is where the respect for Masvidal might come back to bite him. While Diaz gleefully trash talks anyone he’s fighting, for some reason it doesn’t look like that’ll happen against street Jesus. And if he does, it’s doubtful that it would work against a fighter who started his MMA career by fighting in Kimbo Slice’s backyard.
Masvidal is one of the savviest fighters in the game, with zero weaknesses and an excellent standup. His fight IQ is off the charts, as his ability to gameplan and make midfight adjustments. Against Donald Cerrone, he turned the tide after a losing first round simply with stiff jab. When fighting the bigger Till, he took a page out of Tyron Woodley’s book, forcing the fight into a phone booth and earning the knockout.
The compelling part of this matchup is that Diaz is a guy that forces his style, daring guys to brawl with him. How that works against a chameleon like Masvidal is questionable. Though Masvidal is fearless, you’ll never find him in a straight slugfest.
UFC Odds Pick: Masvidal to win at -185
Online oddsmakers were right to favor Gamebred here. He is the more dynamic fighter, and has 25 minutes to probe Diaz’s weaknesses until he finds something that works. While he’ll want to put on a show in a spotlight fight, Masvidal is well-aware of his high standing in the division and won’t take too many risks.
UFC Odds Pick: Masvidal to win by TKO
Masvidal’s underrated knockout ability could come into play here. While Diaz has only been knocked out once in his career, Gamebred has the tools to follow the exact gameplan of Josh Thomson - the only man to stop Diaz with strikes. This is an extremely risky pick, but one that could pay off handsomely.
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