Geoff Neal is heavily favored against Niko Price at UFC 240 on Saturday, July 27 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Neal is 11-2 in his career, while Price is 13-2 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main pay-per-view card at UFC 240, with the headliner a bout between Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar. There are also a total of seven fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN 2 and three on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Neal and Price and UFC picks.
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Geoff Neal (11-2, 3-0 UFC)
Neal came into the UFC with a record of 8-2 and he has three wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Brian Camozzi by rear-naked choke submission, Frank Camacho by KO, and Belal Muhammad by unanimous decisions. Neal’s last loss in his career was against Kevin Holland by TKO on January 28, 2017. Neal has been a pro since 2012 and he has six wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Niko Price (13-2, 5-2 UFC)
Price came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has five wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Brandon Thatch by arm-triangle choke submission, Alan Jouban by TKO, George Sullivan by rear-naked choke submission, Randy Brown by KO, and Tim Means by KO; while losing to Vicente Luque by D’Arce choke submission and Abdul Razak Alhassan by KO. Price has been a pro since 2012 and he has nine wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Neal 6.01 / Price 2.93
Accuracy: Neal 45% / Price 32%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Neal 3.71/ Price 4.29
Defense: Neal 67% / Price 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Neal 0.00/ Price 1.29
Accuracy: Neal 0% / Price 28%
Takedowns defended: Neal 91% / Price 66%
Submission average: Neal 0.6 / Price 1.6
UFC Picks
Neal is favored at -365 and while I have a lot of respect for Neal, he shouldn’t be listed at such a high price against Price. This fight should be a war and could be the Fight of the Night. Neal is an excellent striker who lands about six strikes per minute, but Price is no slouch and we know that Price is tough as nails. Price has only lost twice in his career and there is no shame losing to Vicente Luque or Abdul Razak Alhassan. Neal should be listed as the favorite, but more in the 2-1 range and not almost 4-1. I think there is definite value on Price so I will take him at the big plus price.
UFC 240 takes place at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada on Saturday, July 27, with five fights on the main pay-per-view card, headlined by Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar and seven preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN 2 and three on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Featherweight - Max Holloway -385 vs. Frankie Edgar
Women's Featherweight - Cris Cyborg -800 vs. Felicia Spencer
Welterweight - Geoff Neal -365 vs. Niko Price
Lightweight - Arman Tsarukyan -230 vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Middleweight - Krzysztof Jotko -165 vs. Marc-André Barriault
Preliminary card (ESPN 2)
Women's Flyweight - Viviane Araújo -270 vs. Alexis Davis
Featherweight - Hakeem Dawodu -390 vs. Yoshinori Horie
Featherweight - Gavin Tucker -140 vs. Seung Woo Choi
Flyweight - Alexandre Pantoja -120 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Early Preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)
Women's Flyweight - Gillian Robertson -139 vs. Sarah Frota
Welterweight - Kyle Stewart -127 vs. Erik Koch
Heavyweight - Tanner Boser -170 vs. Giacomo Lemos
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