Light heavyweight champion Jon Jones (24-1, 10 KOs, 6 SUBs) meets knockout artist Thiago “Marreta” Santos (21-6, 15 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC 239 on Saturday, July 6, 2019 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Jon Jones is staying busy in 2019. Four months after dominating Anthony Smith to defend the light heavyweight title, Bones meets Brazilian punished Thiago Santos this Saturday in Las Vegas. He’ll try to extend a 16-fight unbeaten streak and a 24-1 record in which he’s never really lost.
It’s good to see the GOAT stay active after so many screwups that robbed him from some of the prime years of his career. Now that he’s fully dedicated himself to fighting (we hope), this could be the scariest version of Jones we’ve ever encountered. And with an extremely shallow division struggling to catch up, it’s conceivable that the 31-year old’s title reign could stretch for years. Honestly, we’d be surprised if it didn’t.
Thiago Santos might be a huge underdog in the online sportsbook, but the 35-year old isn’t just some tin can Jones can overlook. In fact, Marreta is arguably the heaviest hitter at 205 pounds right now, earning three consecutive knockouts over Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz to bash his way into a title shot. Though we never got to see Jones vs. Rumble, Santos more than fulfills the longing to see Jones face a one-hitter quitter.
Currently, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu lists Jones as a -700, with Santos at +456 on the comeback. The best prices we could find across the online sportsbooks were Jones at -600 (5Dimes, Bovada and BetOnline), and Santos at +472 (SportBet).
Let’s break down this matchup and find the best picks. Live UFC betting lets you hedge your bets between rounds as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jon Jones -850
Thiago Santos +515
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +320 / -425
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Jones 4.48 / Santos 5.01
Accuracy: Jones 57% / Santos 2.16
Absorbed per minute: Jones 2.05 / Santos 2.16
Defense: Jones 64% / Santos 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Jones 2.07 / Santos 1
Takedown accuracy: Jones 47% / Santos 40%
Takedown defense: Jones 95% / Santos 67%
Submission average: Jones 0.52 / Santos 0.13
Bet Jones vs. Santos at the online sportsbook
We’ve waited Jones’ entire career to see him face a dude who would just charge him throwing haymakers. This especially comes up in Jones fights - he gets so far ahead that the only chance his opponents have is to land a hail mary. The problem with that is that he makes it so hard for guys to even get clean shots off. There’s also the fact that a lot of dudes just don’t feel like getting knocked out cold in front of millions of viewers.
But Santos might finally be the guy that throws everything out the window. That’s because he comes into every fight with the same plan: hit the other guy really, really hard no matter what. Whereas Rumble did the same thing with his fists, Santos uses his legs. The Brazilian has the hardest kicks in the division, and he throws them at all levels like a 205-pound version of Edson Barboza. He’s not afraid to force the issue either - Marreta will start brawling at the drop of a hat.
The big differentiator here could be Jones’ wrestling. Santos becomes more tentative when opponents establish their takedowns, and the champ has some of the craftiest trips in the game. While the Brazilian has improved his grappling recently, submission defense still remains a weakness. He’s strong enough to power his way back to the feet from the mat, but leaving those kinds of openings for Bones could prove fatal.
UFC Odds Pick: Jones to win at -850
This would probably serve you better as a parlay pick. Jones is much too smart to be drawn into a risky firefight and is a much more well-rounded fighter. He might have some trouble with Santos’ chaotic offense, but he should be able to fully gain control of this fight quickly.
UFC Odds Pick: Jones to win by submission
While Jones has made it a point to beat opponents at their strength, his knack for submissions bodes well against a subpar grappler like Santos. This prop bet offers a solid payout if Jones to win is too expensive for your tastes.
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