Karolina Kowalkiewicz is slightly favored against Alexa Grasso at UFC 238 on Saturday, June 8 in Chicago, Illinois. This event is one of four fights on the ESPN portion of the preliminary card. Kowalkiewicz is 12-4 in her career, while Grasso is 10-2 in her career. There are a total of five fights on the main card for pay-per-view on ESPN+ at UFC 238, with the headliner a bout between Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN and four on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Kowalkiewicz and Grasso and UFC predictions.
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-4, 5-4 UFC)
Kowalkiewicz came into the UFC with a record of 7-0 and she has five wins and four losses in the UFC. She defeated Randa Markos by unanimous decision, Heather Jo Clark by unanimous decision, Rose Namajunas by split decision, Jodie Esquibel by unanimous decision, and Felice Herrig by split decision; while losing to Joanna Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision, Cláudia Gadelha by rear-naked choke submission, Jessica Andrade by KO, and Michelle Waterson by unanimous decision. Kowalkiewicz has been a pro since 2012 and she has one win by TKO and two by submission. She has three first round finishes.
Alexa Grasso (10-2, 2-2 UFC)
Grasso came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and she has two wins and two losses in the UFC. She defeated Heather Jo Clark by unanimous decision and Randa Markos by unanimous decision; while losing to Felice Herrig by unanimous decision and Tatiana Suarez by rear-naked choke submission. Grasso has been a pro since 2012 and she has four wins by TKO/KO. She has four first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Kowalkiewicz 5.52 / Grasso 4.50
Accuracy: Kowalkiewicz 39% / Grasso 42%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Kowalkiewicz 5.05/ Grasso 3.08
Defense: Kowalkiewicz 56% / Grasso 67%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Kowalkiewicz 0.13/ Grasso 0.31
Accuracy: Kowalkiewicz 14% / Grasso 50%
Takedowns defended: Kowalkiewicz 83% / Grasso 63%
Submission average: Kowalkiewicz 0.0 / Grasso 0.3
UFC Predictions
Kowalkiewicz is slightly favored in this fight, but the fight is really a complete toss-up. Even though Grasso doesn’t have much experience in the UFC, she has done slightly better than Kowalkiewicz who right now is on a two fight losing streak. Neither of these two fighters as a lot of power and neither is really known as a finisher, so there is a good chance that this fight goes the distance. I lean a little bit to Grasso as Kowalkiewicz simply hasn’t looked that good lately, but I think the better choice is simply to play the rounds to go over the total.
UFC 238 takes place United Center in Chicago, Illinois on Saturday, June 8, with five fights on the main card for pay-per-view on ESPN+ , headlined by Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes and eight preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN and four on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View on ESPN+)
Bantamweight - Marlon Moraes -125 vs. Henry Cejudo
Women's Flyweight - Valentina Shevchenko -1400 vs. Jessica Eye
Lightweight - Tony Ferguson -155 vs. Donald Cerrone
Bantamweight - Petr Yan -375 vs. Jimmie Rivera
Heavyweight - Tai Tuivasa -145 vs. Blagoy Ivanov
Preliminary card (ESPN)
Women's Strawweight - Tatiana Suarez -850 vs. Nina Ansaroff
Bantamweight - Aljamain Sterling -126 vs. Pedro Munhoz
Women's Strawweight - Karolina Kowalkiewicz -120 vs. Alexa Grasso
Featherweight - Calvin Kattar -150 vs. Ricardo Lamas
Early Preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)
Women's Strawweight - Xiaonan Yan -200 vs. Angela Hill
Middleweight - Bevon Lewis -240 vs. Darren Stewart
Women's Flyweight - Joanne Calderwood -115 vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Bantamweight - Eddie Wineland -135 vs. Grigory Popov
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