Petr Yan is heavily favored against Jimmie Rivera at UFC 238 on Saturday, June 8 in Chicago, Illinois. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card on ESPN+. Rivera is 22-3 in his career, while Yan is 12-1 in his career. There are a total of five fights on the main card at UFC 238, with the headliner a bout between Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes. There are also a total of eight fights on the preliminary card with four on ESPN and four on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Rivera and Yan and UFC picks.
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Jimmie Rivera (22-3, 6-2 UFC)
Rivera came into the UFC with a record of 16-1 and he has six wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Marcus Brimage by KO, Pedro Munhoz by split decision, Iuri Alcântara by unanimous decision, Urijah Faber by unanimous decision, Thomas Almeida by unanimous decision, and John Dodson by unanimous decision; while losing to Marlon Moraes by KO and Aljamain Sterling by unanimous decision. Rivera has been a pro since 2008 and he has four wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has two first round finishes.
Petr Yan (12-1, 4-0 UFC)
Yan came into the UFC with a record of 8-1 and he has four wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Teruto Ishihara by KO, Jin Soo Son by unanimous decision, Douglas Silva de Andrade by TKO, and John Dodson by unanimous decision. Yan’s only loss was against Magomed Magomedov by split decision on March 26, 2016. Yan has been a pro since 2013 and he has five wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has three first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Rivera 3.98 / Yan 6.46
Accuracy: Rivera 40% / Yan 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Rivera 3.90/ Yan 2.92
Defense: Rivera 59% / Yan 68%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Rivera 0.81/ Yan 1.73
Accuracy: Rivera 27% / Yan 50%
Takedowns defended: Rivera 100% / Yan 83%
Submission average: Rivera 0.0 / Yan 0.3
UFC Picks
Yan is heavily favored in this fight and while he has the advantage, the price may be too high. The problem in backing Rivera is that his defense and accuracy simply are not very good. Yan has the capability to outsmart Rivera in this fight and that is what will likely happen. I am not willing to lay the almost 4-1 on Yan, although I think he will win, so I will look at the rounds total. Neither of these two fighters has shown they can finish quickly, as they have just five first round finishes between them. I think Rivera can hang around for a while and that should mean this fight goes over the round total.
UFC 238 takes place United Center in Chicago, Illinois on Saturday, June 8, with five fights on the main card for pay-per-view on ESPN+, headlined by Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes and eight preliminary bouts, with four on ESPN and four on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View on ESPN+)
Bantamweight - Marlon Moraes -127 vs. Henry Cejudo
Women's Flyweight - Valentina Shevchenko -2000 vs. Jessica Eye
Lightweight - Tony Ferguson -150 vs. Donald Cerrone
Bantamweight - Petr Yan -375 vs. Jimmie Rivera
Heavyweight - Tai Tuivasa -155 vs. Blagoy Ivanov
Preliminary card (ESPN)
Women's Strawweight - Tatiana Suarez -1300 vs. Nina Ansaroff
Bantamweight - Aljamain Sterling -122 vs. Pedro Munhoz
Women's Strawweight - Karolina Kowalkiewicz -130 vs. Alexa Grasso
Featherweight - Calvin Kattar -165 vs. Ricardo Lamas
Early Preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass)
Women's Strawweight - Xiaonan Yan -210 vs. Angela Hill
Middleweight - Bevon Lewis -240 vs. Darren Stewart
Women's Flyweight - Joanne Calderwood -118 vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Bantamweight - Eddie Wineland -130 vs. Grigory Popov
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