Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (28-4, 17 KOs, 1 SUB) meets No. 4 Alexander Volkanovski (19-1, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC 237 on Saturday, May 10, 2019 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
Alexander Volkanovski is just one win away from the title. While it hasn’t been explicitly promised to him yet, consider his situation this Saturday: the Russian is coming into hostile territory on a 16-fight winning streak - most recently knocking out Chad Mendes - and is meeting No. 1 contender and former featherweight champion Jose Aldo in Brazil.
So unless Conor McGregor suddenly decides that he wants to be a featherweight again, Volkanovski gets next...if he wins. It’s a huge if. While he’s looked beastly cleaning out the 145-pound middle class (and a washed up Mendes), the Australian is taking a huge step up in competition against one of the best featherweights to ever compete in MMA
It feels like Aldo has been around forever, but the guy is just 32. He might be just 3-3 in his past six, but those losses came against Conor McGregor and Max Holloway. Those wins? An easy decision against Frankie Edgar, a 1st round TKO over Jeremy Stephens, and a second round TKO over Moicano. He’s far from done, even if he’s already looking forward to the end of his MMA career.
Oddsmakers still see a lot left in Aldo as well, as the former champ opened as a modest favorite in the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu. Let’s dive into your available picks and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alex Volkanovski +121
Jose Aldo -152
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +100 / -140
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Aldo 3.53 / Volkanovski 6.06
Accuracy: Aldo 44% / Volkanovski 60%
Absorbed per minute: Aldo 2.97 / Volkanovski 2.61
Defense: Aldo 66% / Volkanovski 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Aldo 0.71 / Volkanovski 3.37
Takedown accuracy: Aldo 68% / Volkanovski 41%
Takedown defense: Aldo 92% / Volkanovski 71%
Submission average: Aldo 0.16 / Volkanovski 0.63
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Though Aldo looked untouchable for the better part of a decade, there are growing cracks in his armor. His seemingly iron chin was blasted by Conor Mcgregor, who needed just one left cross to knock him out cold. Two back-to-back losses Max Holloway showed an inability to hold up against relentless pressure and pace. Then again, those two dudes have transcendent abilities - showing just how much it takes to beat Aldo.
Can Volkanovski join the hallowed circle? There are certainly some strong arguments for him. He’s an excellent wrestler and an aggressive puncher, landing over six strikes a minute and three takedowns per 15. Against Mendes, he smiled off some huge punches to the dome and returned in kind. Jeremy Stephens had success drawing Aldo into a brawl, but could not handle the return fire nor keep up the pace. Volkanovski seems much better suited to do so.
However, we’ve seen over and over that you cannot force Aldo to wrestle. One of the best MMA sprawlers ever, guys like Frankie Edgar have failed to consistently force the 32-year old to the mat. If Volkanovski gets tunnel vision trying to land a takedown, he’s going to be in for a long night. His best path to victory will be to force Aldo to fight inside a phone booth and exert himself with counters. That’s a tough task.
UFC Odds Pick: Aldo to win at -152
It’s tough to pick against Aldo here. He does well against pressure fighters, as his lightning quick counters and agile lateral movement make him impossible to corner. Volkanovski doesn’t have the height and range of somebody like Holloway, so we expect him to get lit up trying to chase down the Brazilian. The affordable price on Aldo makes this an easy pick.
Bet on UFC 237 odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 237 takes place on Saturday, May 10, 2019 at the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
